Rattle wrote:
] Does Saddam move first?
]
] I'm going with yes, with a spread of 12 hours.. That is, at
] least 12 hours before whatever deadline is set gets reached..

My guess is no... In fact, I'm surprised that his troops haven't fired on us over the last few months. Over the last decade, there'd been a kind of constant low-grade conflict, as U.S. or British planes would take out targets in the No-Fly Zone, and Iraqis would shoot back, but over the last couple months, things have been surprisingly quiet from the Iraqi side. My guess is that Saddam knew that if his troops *did* fire first, that it would give us the (relatively) moral high ground to move in and say that we were just "advancing in self defense".

The thing that I'm most curious about, is whether there will be some other move by a higher-up in the Iraqi military. After all, if they're genuinely worried about an attack by the U.S., the entire invasion could probably be stopped by one single bullet -- fired at Saddam.

RE: Place your bets..

This is another article about the arrest of the Al Qaeda communications chief, Jazeeri (aka Jaziri, aka Jazairi). It's probable that by "sophisticated monitoring equipment", they mean "Echelon".

] As in previous arrests, FBI technicians helped to locate
] Jazeeri's location through sophisticated telephone
] monitoring equipment, but there was also a bit of
] old-fashioned subterfuge.
]
] Pakistani authorities released the arrested sons of Dr.
] Khwaja only last week. By keeping Khizr Khwaja and Omar
] Khwaja under surveillance and monitoring their phone
] calls, Pakistani security officials and FBI agents
] quickly located Jazeeri in the posh Gulburg neighborhood
] of Lahore.

I also got a kick though out of a section towards the bottom of this article:

Pakistani officials say Jazeeri's arrest could be a significant blow to Al Qaeda's operations, since most Al Qaeda fugitives need outside sources of money to pay for food and shelter in hiding. More important, it is easier to find a soldier than it is to find a good accountant.

Indeed. :)

Easier to Find a Soldier Than to Find an Accountant

jessica wrote:
] ] In a study to be published in the journal Biology of
] ] Reproduction, researchers collected samples from the
] ] underarms of men who refrained from using deodorant for
] ] four weeks. The extracts were then blended and applied to
] ] the upper lips of 18 women, aged 25 to 45.
] ]
] ] The women rated their moods on a fixed scale for a period
] ] of six hours. The findings suggested something in the
] ] perspiration brightened their moods and helped them feel
] ] less tense. Blood analyses also showed a rise in levels
] ] of the reproductive luteinizing hormone that typically
] ] surge before ovulation.

I'd be interested to know if they cross-referenced the genetic type of the subjects involved. It reminds me of the "sweaty T-shirt" study done several years ago in Switzerland, where they asked women to smell T-shirts which had been worn by men of varying genetic types. What the study showed, was that women would rate men as "smelling sexier" if the man who'd worn the shirt had a different MHC (Major Histocompatibility Complex) than the woman who was doing the sniffing (as an interesting side note, women who were on the pill would rate men with the *same* MHC as smelling sexy).

More info here:
 http://www.people.virginia.edu/~rjh9u/mhcsml.html

RE: Study: Male sweat brightens women's moods

This is a list maintained by the CASI group: "Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq." It seems to be a well-hyperlinked list of all of the resolutions relating to Iraq up through 12/30/2002, along with links to PDFs of each resolution, and even includes text of rejected drafts of the resolutions. For example, you can see the Russian, French, British, and American drafts of 1441, which were submitted before the finalized text of 1441 was agreed upon in November 2002.

UN Security Council resolutions relating to Iraq

This is a link to the raw text of Resolution 1441.

U.N. Security Council Resolution 1441

] Intelligence experts attached to the army of occupation
] will find the missing people, places and records. They
] will identify, with dollar figures, just who sold
] contraband to Mr. Hussein and how shipment was
] arranged -- a prospect bound to worry some people
] in Europe and Asia.

France and Russia come immediately to mind...

(note: This is a NY Times link. Registration may be required)

The Man Who Would Be President

] Al-Jaziri is thought to be involved in al Qaeda's
] business operations, and the intelligence source
] described him as a US-educated "computer whiz."
]
] Intelligence sources said local experts were still trying
] to crack the security codes on two laptops and some CDs
] which were found at the one-room apartment.
]
] Another source said travellers checks and maps of
] "various installations" around the country had also been
] seized.

My guess is that if anyone in al Qaeda was using high-tech cryptography, it would be this guy. I look forward to learning more about what he was using!

Pakistan Arrests al Qaeda Communications Chief

quoted:
===
The game you are about to play is a test of the next generation of Twenty Questions.

This works surprisingly well. The algorithm is very straight forward...

20Q - Play 20 Questions Against an AI

] Khalid admitted he was in contact with Osama Bin Laden as
] late as this year, but insisted he was unaware of his
] whereabouts
...
]
] The contacts were made through messengers.
]
] He and Bin Laden had communicated through a complex chain
] of messengers, involving a combination of e-mail and
] couriers
. . .
]
] Some of those messages were in the form of handwritten
] letters from Bin Laden, found in the room where Sheikh
] Mohammed was sleeping when he was nabbed in a pre-dawn
] raid Saturday.

Bin Laden Communicated via Handwritten Letters

] KARACHI, Pakistan -- A laptop computer used by al-Qaeda
] operational planner Khalid Shaikh Mohammed has yielded a
] list of at least half a dozen hiding places along the
] Pakistan-Afghan border used by Osama bin Laden and
] his supporters, U.S. and Pakistani intelligence
] officials said Wednesday.
. . .
] Much of the information on Mohammed's laptop computer
] was protected by an encryption code that CIA analysts
] cracked easily, U.S. intelligence officials said.
]
] The analysts said the code was surprisingly simple.

Arabic ROT-13, perhaps? ;)

Seized laptop lists al-Qaeda hideouts