Stratfor: Geopolitical Intelligence Report - January 4, 2007

The 'Surge Strategy': Political Arguments and Military Realities

By George Friedman

U.S. President George W. Bush is preparing a new strategy for Iraq.
According to reports being leaked to the media, the primary option
being considered is a "surge strategy," in which U.S. troop levels
in Iraq would be increased, particularly in the Baghdad region. The
numbers of additional troops that would deploy -- or that would not
be rotated home -- are unclear, but appear to be in the low tens of
thousands. This "surge" strategy is interesting in that it runs
counter to general expectations after the midterm elections in
November, when it appeared that the president was tied to a phased
withdrawal plan. Instead, Bush seems to have decided to attempt to
break out of the military gridlock in which the United States finds
itself. Therefore, the questions now are why the president is
considering this strategy and whether it will work.

As we have discussed previously, the United States appears to have
four strategic options in Iraq:

1. Massively increase the number of troops in Iraq, attempting to
break the back of both the Sunni insurgents and the Shiite militias
and create room for a political settlement.

2. Begin a withdrawal process that allows the Iraqis to shape the
politics of the country as they will -- and that leaves a huge
opportunity for Iran to fill the vacuum.

3. Abandon attempts to provide security for Iraq but retain forces
there, in a redeployed posture, with the goal of blocking any
potential Iranian moves toward the Arabian Peninsula.

4. Attempt to reach a political accommodation with Tehran that
concedes Iraq to the Iranian sphere of influence, in order to
provide guarantees against Iranian expansion southward. This
diplomatic option is compatible with all others.

Each of these options has strengths and weakness. The first option,
the surge, rests on the assumption that the United States has
enough troops available to make a difference on the ground in Iraq;
it also would decrease the strategic reserve for dealing with other
crises around the world. The phased withdrawal option eliminates
the need for Iraqi Shia and Iran to engage in political discussion
-- since, given time, U.S. forces would depart from Iraq and the
Shia would be the dominant force. The blocking strategy puts the
United States in the position of protecting Saudi Arabia (a Sunni
kingdom that doesn't want to appear to be seeking such protection)
against Iran -- a Shiite state that could, in that situation,
choose the time and place for initiating conflict. In other words,
this option would put U.S. forces on a strategic defensive in
hostile areas. The fourth option, diplomacy, assumes so... [ Read More (1.6k in body) ]