A senior US defense official denied the report, telling Reuters it was "another piece of stray voltage that's passing around out there."

Can you say 'traceroute'?

Decius wrote:
] ] The Iranian correspondent responsible for the report told
] ] Reuters the radio had also reported bin Laden's capture
] ] a year ago. But said a new source had told him on Friday
] ] the al Qaeda leader had been seized "a long time ago."
] ]
] ] "It could be one month ago, it could be one year, but he
] ] has been arrested," he said.
]
] When they arrest BL, they won't tell everyone that they've
] arrested BL, because BL knows things that they want to know,
] and they don't want BL's associates to react to the idea that
] they have the information that BL has. They could delay making
] an announcement for quite some time if they feel like they can
] collect useful intelligence. So rest assured, when you hear
] that BL has been captured, it happened a long time ago. It
] might have happened already. There is really no way to know
] unless the guy puts out a recent video...

And even then you don't know if he's making the video on behalf of the CIA.

Decius wrote:
] ] The Iranian correspondent responsible for the report told
] ] Reuters the radio had also reported bin Laden's capture
] ] a year ago. But said a new source had told him on Friday
] ] the al Qaeda leader had been seized "a long time ago."
] ]
] ] "It could be one month ago, it could be one year, but he
] ] has been arrested," he said.
]
] When they arrest BL, they won't tell everyone that they've
] arrested BL, because BL knows things that they want to know,
] and they don't want BL's associates to react to the idea that
] they have the information that BL has. They could delay making
] an announcement for quite some time if they feel like they can
] collect useful intelligence. So rest assured, when you hear
] that BL has been captured, it happened a long time ago. It
] might have happened already. There is really no way to know
] unless the guy puts out a recent video...

I think it will be really interesting to see if an announcement of his arrest comes in close conjuction with the November election... -LB

Decius wrote:
] When they arrest BL, they won't tell everyone that they've
] arrested BL, because BL knows things that they want to know,
] and they don't want BL's associates to react to the idea that
] they have the information that BL has. They could delay making
] an announcement for quite some time if they feel like they can
] collect useful intelligence. So rest assured, when you hear
] that BL has been captured, it happened a long time ago. It
] might have happened already. There is really no way to know
] unless the guy puts out a recent video...

It would be really amusing if that is the way Bin Laden's capture goes down, or rather went down. There is certainly a media buildup going on right now, pushing the idea that we are about to go and get him. It could be as simple as the arrival of spring, but I'm a lover of conspiracy theories. I drink them like fine wine. I must admit, this is a pretty good one. If for nothing other then the yuck yucks..

Its even justifiable. If I was in the position of protecting Bin Laden, there would be very few (probably less then 5) people who knew where he was. That sucker would have a profile so small, a team of special forces could walk over his hole in the ground and not notice. If that is the case, he has been caught, and his connections to the few people who knew where he was were also compromised, then it would offer a possible opportunity to collapse the entire top end of Al'Q's leadership network via a well planned short term deception.

That being said.. (And my love of conspiracy theories on the table...) I'm still not 100% confident that "Al Queda" is as we are being sold it is. Or maybe it is, "The Base" after all.. I think if the real nature of these terrorist groups was known, the public might be a little more scared, confused, and way more distrustful of our leadership's approach in taking them out. I feel the public is being sold the idea that these groups work like a hierarchy (maybe because its easy to understand?), when we know that is not the case. These networks can heal. At best, we take out their spiritual leaders and inspire then with emotional pain, something they are trained to react to.

At this point, these people have certainly diversified their leadership network. Bin Laden's most significant act, may have been to inspire other like individuals who were on the edge of moderation. I'm sure our intelligence people are aware of that fact to the degree it keeps them up at night. They know the threat takes its roots in a set of ideas, not a man. The ideas in play, are how shall I say, "open source"??

From a PR perspective, not finding Bin Laden may make this war easier. The closer to the election they find him, the more I'm likely to hit the gong.. Is that justified? Or am I too distrusting of my own country? I'm not sure.

If/when they capture Bin Laden, they are going to make a ... [ Read More (0.1k in body) ]

Decius wrote:
] When they arrest BL, they won't tell everyone that they've
] arrested BL, because BL knows things that they want to know,
] and they don't want BL's associates to react to the idea that
] they have the information that BL has. They could delay making
] an announcement for quite some time if they feel like they can
] collect useful intelligence. So rest assured, when you hear
] that BL has been captured, it happened a long time ago. It
] might have happened already. There is really no way to know
] unless the guy puts out a recent video...

Then Rattle wrote:
Saddam's capture felt pretty stock. The PR handling of Bin Laden's capture should rival that of Janet Jackson's tit and all of the primaries. I'm sure there is a upper-double-digit size team of people working somewhere in Virginia, pondering the best 10 of 40 different approaches to handling the situation. I hope they have some good ideas.

Then I (Elonka) wrote:

I don't think there's any way that they'd be able to keep bin Laden's capture secret. At least for any period of time. There are too many other people that would be notified when it happens. Word would have to go up the chain from the soldiers to the commanders to Washington to Bush and several of his advisors. Word would also be going out through the tribe or wherever BL's been hiding. *They* would know he was gone, and they'd be talking as well.

It's too big of a secret -- I don't believe it could be kept for more than a few days, max.

Elonka wrote:
] I don't think there's any way that they'd be able to keep bin
] Laden's capture secret. At least for any period of time.

From the Atlanta Monthly in October 2003:

It is likely that some captured terrorists' names and arrests have not yet been revealed; people may be held for months before their "arrests" are staged. Once a top-level suspect is publicly known to be in custody, his intelligence value falls. His organization scatters, altering its plans, disguises, cover stories, codes, tactics, and communication methods. The maximum opportunity for intelligence gathering comes in the first hours after an arrest, before others in a group can possibly know that their walls have been breached. Keeping an arrest quiet for days or weeks prolongs this opportunity. If March 1 was in fact the day of Sheikh Mohammed's capture, then the cameras and the headlines were an important intelligence failure. The arrest of the senior al-Qaeda figure Abu Anas Liby, in Sudan in February of 2002, was not made public until a month later, when U.S. efforts to have him transferred to custody in Egypt were leaked to the Sunday Times of London.

The Dark Art of Interrogation

A senior US defense official denied the report, telling Reuters it was "another piece of stray voltage that's passing around out there."

Can you say 'traceroute'?