Decius wrote:
] When they arrest BL, they won't tell everyone that they've
] arrested BL, because BL knows things that they want to know,
] and they don't want BL's associates to react to the idea that
] they have the information that BL has. They could delay making
] an announcement for quite some time if they feel like they can
] collect useful intelligence. So rest assured, when you hear
] that BL has been captured, it happened a long time ago. It
] might have happened already. There is really no way to know
] unless the guy puts out a recent video...

It would be really amusing if that is the way Bin Laden's capture goes down, or rather went down. There is certainly a media buildup going on right now, pushing the idea that we are about to go and get him. It could be as simple as the arrival of spring, but I'm a lover of conspiracy theories. I drink them like fine wine. I must admit, this is a pretty good one. If for nothing other then the yuck yucks..

Its even justifiable. If I was in the position of protecting Bin Laden, there would be very few (probably less then 5) people who knew where he was. That sucker would have a profile so small, a team of special forces could walk over his hole in the ground and not notice. If that is the case, he has been caught, and his connections to the few people who knew where he was were also compromised, then it would offer a possible opportunity to collapse the entire top end of Al'Q's leadership network via a well planned short term deception.

That being said.. (And my love of conspiracy theories on the table...) I'm still not 100% confident that "Al Queda" is as we are being sold it is. Or maybe it is, "The Base" after all.. I think if the real nature of these terrorist groups was known, the public might be a little more scared, confused, and way more distrustful of our leadership's approach in taking them out. I feel the public is being sold the idea that these groups work like a hierarchy (maybe because its easy to understand?), when we know that is not the case. These networks can heal. At best, we take out their spiritual leaders and inspire then with emotional pain, something they are trained to react to.

At this point, these people have certainly diversified their leadership network. Bin Laden's most significant act, may have been to inspire other like individuals who were on the edge of moderation. I'm sure our intelligence people are aware of that fact to the degree it keeps them up at night. They know the threat takes its roots in a set of ideas, not a man. The ideas in play, are how shall I say, "open source"??

From a PR perspective, not finding Bin Laden may make this war easier. The closer to the election they find him, the more I'm likely to hit the gong.. Is that justified? Or am I too distrusting of my own country? I'm not sure.

If/when they capture Bin Laden, they are going to make a serious attempt to defuse his image, which is his most powerful weapon. In the eyes of radical Islam, he is a demigod. He is a Caliph, trying to bring back the glory of the Caliphate, and unite the Umma, or some such thing. That myth, is what needs to be destroyed. That myth, is way more powerful then Bin Laden, Al Queda, and all the Brigades of Al Quesa or whatever the hell they call this extremist hooha these days. Depending on how we handle his capture, we turn him into a martyr, or we partially defuse and confuse his message. Most of his power was build on top of the radical Wahabi preaching coming out of the Saudis. If we have even the partial cooperation of those governments and their education ministries (and they are threatened too), at the very least it may be possible to curtail the growth of the meme.

Saddam's capture felt pretty stock. The PR handling of Bin Laden's capture should rival that of Janet Jackson's tit and all of the primaries. I'm sure there is a upper-double-digit size team of people working somewhere in Virginia, pondering the best 10 of 40 different approaches to handling the situation. I hope they have some good ideas.

RE: US denies Iranian report of Bin Lauden capture