Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis have updated their expectations for earthquakes in the New Madrid Seismic Zone.

The new forecasts estimate a 7 to 10 percent chance, in the next 50 years, of a repeat of a major earthquake like those that occurred in 1811-1812, which likely had magnitudes of between 7.5 and 8.0.

There is a 25 to 40 percent chance, in a 50-year time span, of a magnitude 6.0 or greater earthquake.

USGS News Release - Scientists Update New Madrid Earthquake Forecasts