By dropping the Iranian nuclear threat and shifting to the threat to the strait, Bush moves the Iran issue from being one involving the United States and Israel to being one that excludes Israel but involves every oil producer in the region. None of them wants this to happen, and all of them must take the threat seriously. If it can establish the threat, the United States goes from being an advocate against Iran to being the guarantor of very real Arab interests. And if the price Arabs must pay for the United States to keep the strait open is helping shut down the jihadist threat in Iraq, that is a small price indeed.

This puts Iran in a tough position. Prior to the issuance of the NIE, the Iranians had shifted some of their policies on Iraq. The decline in violence in Iraq is partly because of the surge, but it also is because Iran has cut back on some of the things it used to do, particularly supporting Shiite militias with weapons and money and urging them to attack Sunnis. It also is clear that the limits it had imposed on some of the Iraqi Shiite politicians in the latter’s dealings with their Sunni counterparts have shifted. The new law allowing Baath Party members to return to public life could not possibly have been passed without Iranian acquiescence.

New US Strategy against Iran

Download the PDF. Great paper!

In considering fiscal policy at this juncture, policymakers need to answer several key questions. Is fiscal stimulus needed? When should such stimulus be provided? And what would constitute effective fiscal stimulus? These questions are not merely technical. The livelihoods and living standards of many Americans are at stake. Fortunately, economic research provides clear theory and evidence for making appropriate decisions about if, when, and how to craft fiscal stimulus. This paper summarizes the evidence and provides straightforward principles and examples for formulating effective stimulus.

If, When, How: A Primer on Fiscal Stimulus - Brookings Institution

One of the biggest surveys so far of Iraqis who have died violently since the US-led invasion of 2003 has put the figure at about 151,000.

This is about a quarter of the figure given in a disputed Lancet article, but nearly three times higher than that of the Iraq Body Count campaigning group.

The result is based on interviews with over 9,000 families across Iraq carried out by the health ministry for the WHO.

BBC NEWS | Middle East | New study says 151,000 Iraqi dead

President George W Bush has condemned Iran as the foremost threat to global security as he attempted to rally Gulf states behind a tougher line against the Islamic Republic during a tour of the region.

In a keynote speech in Abu Dhabi President Bush said it was time to confront an Iran that supported terrorism and defied the United Nations to pursue secret nuclear research.

"Iran is today the world's leading state sponsor of terror," he said. "It sends hundreds of millions of dollars to extremists around the world while its own people face repression and economic hardship at home.

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So much for peace speeches.

George Bush calls Iran 'leading terror sponsor' - Telegraph

Threats to US ships in the Strait of Hormuz heard at the end of a Pentagon-released recording of an incident between Iranian patrol boats and US Navy warships last week may have been the work of a local heckler known as the "Filipino Monkey", The Navy Times has reported.

This has led several Navy experts to raise the possibility that a heckler, known locally as the "Filipino Monkey" - or a copycat - could have made the threats.

"Filipino Monkey" is believed to be more than one person. Its modus operandi is to listen in to ship-to-ship radio traffic before jumping in with insults and threats.

'Iran threats' may have been work of a heckler - Telegraph

US president George W. Bush is to promise $20 billion in advanced weaponry to Saudi Arabia as he travels through the Gulf states to garner support for further sanctions against Iran.

The weapons deal, which is to include precision-guided missiles, first surfaced last autumn but was postponed over opposition in the US Congress.

George Bush to push $20bn Saudi arms deal - Telegraph

Iran has agreed to clarify all outstanding questions over its past nuclear activities within a month, the UN nuclear watchdog has announced.

The IAEA made the announcement after talks in Tehran held by the agency's head, Mohamed ElBaradei.

A senior official from Iran's atomic energy agency confirmed the agreement, saying Iran has nothing to hide.

BBC NEWS | Middle East | Iran nuclear answers 'in a month'

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. posted a record $48.3 billion budget surplus in December, as year-to-date receipts and outlays also hit record highs, the Treasury Department reported Friday. The monthly surplus is a bit higher than the $47 billion estimated earlier this week by the Congressional Budget Office. The December figure is 15% above the year-ago surplus of $42 billion. Year to date, the U.S. is running a budget deficit of $105.5 billion.

U.S. Dec. budget surplus hits record $48.3 billion - MarketWatch

The US is at risk of losing its top-notch triple-A credit rating within a decade unless it takes radical action to curb soaring healthcare and social security spending, Moody’s, the credit rating agency, said on Thursday.

The warning over the future of the triple-A rating – granted to US government debt since it was first assessed in 1917 – reflects growing concerns over the country’s ability to retain its financial and economic supremacy.

FT.com / World - Moody’s says spending threatens US rating

today Diebold, a company once known primarily for making safes and ATMs, announced that it has decided to put some distance between it and its beleaguered voting machine division -- Diebold Election Systems Inc, (aka DESI), which the company purchased from Global Election Systems in 2002.

The company said that after failing to find a buyer for its voting machine business, it was changing the name of the division to Premier Election Solutions Inc (or PESI) and was giving it more "independence" by establishing a separate board of directors to run it.

Diebold to Change Its Name | Threat Level from Wired.com