] After more or less zipping along between March 2003 and
] early January 2004, the market of late has been limping.
] By the second half of the year, it's bound to regain its
] stride, analysts say, but short term, the prognosis is
] not so good.
]
]
] To put it in perspective, "It's like a person who has
] been gorging from Thanksgiving through Christmas and now
] they're stuffed and hung over," said Barry Ritholtz, a
] market strategist at Maxim Group.

Markets look to keep treading water in March - Feb. 29, 2004

] The biggest bubble in the history of the world that we
] recently experienced was powered by the most incompetent
] and irresponsible Fed in history, along with the public's
] willingness to suspend disbelief. It was a state of mind
] as much as anything else. Folks believed in the existence
] of a "new era," in a Greenspan put, and in retiring
] early, and rich.

The dollar is on borrowed time

] But while the U.S. economy ekes forward, then slips back,
] the Korean and Chinese economies are growing some twice
] as fast. While the U.S. pretends to have a stock market
] resurgence--the figment of a commendably reflated
] dollar--Korea and China are undergoing real equity
] expansions

Check out South Korea Index:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=EWY&t=5y&l=on&z=m&q=l&c=

Forbes.com: Korean Broadband Explosion

] Believe it or not, the following projections are made by
] an advisory service whose 2004 target for the Dow Jones
] Industrials Average is 9,400 -- some 1,200 points below
] where it closed on Tuesday.

Value Line's forecast for the Dow in 2004

] A presidential commission studying ways to reform Social
] Security on Tuesday unanimously approved a set of three
] recommendations that would allow workers to shift some of
] their contributions to the retirement fund into personal
] investment accounts.

About the only thing Bush has right.

CNN.com - Panel proposes personal accounts for Social Security

] CNBC, the financial cable TV network owned by General
] Electric Co., has tightened its rules for its employees
] and their families on owning stocks and bonds. CNBC
] currently allows employees to own individual stocks
] and bonds as long as they keep them for at least four
] months. In addition, reporters, editors and management
] had extra limitations including a requirement that any
] transaction of 500 shares or more, or with a value of
] $20,000 or more, be approved by the company's legal
] department.
]
] The company also conducted random audits and required
] on-air personalities to disclose any personal stock
] holdings whenever they mentioned the company on air.
] Speculative trades such as short-selling were also
] prohibited. Under the new rules, CNBC will require its
] news staff and management to either liquidate all
] holdings of individual stocks and bonds by next
] Jan. 1 or place them in a blind trust. The new rules
] will also apply to spouses, dependents and relatives
] of CNBC employees who live in the same household.

That bites if you work there!

CNBC Tightens Rules on Stock Ownership

] However, let me hasten to add that, at least as I
] interpret it, this rally will ultimately be nothing more
] than a bear market rally. That's because at no point
] during the 2000-2002 bear market did the HSNSI ever
] register the kind of persistent and thoroughgoing
] pessimism and despair that is the hallmark of a major
] bear market bottom.
]
] This would suggest that, whenever this rally eventually
] comes to an end, the bear market will resume. It implies
] that the Dow will see new lows below its Oct. 9, 2002,
] low of 7,286 before it reaches new all time highs above
] the 11,700 level.
]
] But that's a longer-term worry at this point. For now,
] the message of the HSNSI is that this bear market rally
] still has more life left in it.

Newsletter editors continue to be surprisingly cautious

] And don't worry about valuations. Even with the market up
] almost 29% last year, stocks are actually about as cheap
] today as they were one year ago. Sure, prices are higher.
] But the earnings that you can buy for those prices are
] higher, too. Forecasted S&P 500 earnings are up 13%
] year-over-year.
] ...
] If you buy the optimistic core of my analysis, then it's easy to figure out
] what to do. Buy stocks. Buy the most volatile stocks you can find. The
] low-priced tech stocks that led the charge last year will probably do
] it again. Risk is good.

I want whatever he is on...cause he thinks he is back in 1999.

Smartmoney.com: Ahead of the Curve: Basic Advice for 2004

] Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) Center
-------
Ive been wanting to see this for years...

Review all ETFs

] I've done nothing basically because the environment is so
] binary (and all these trades are different expressions of
] the same view) that I feel no compunction to rush into
] anything, especially in the shorting-stocks department.
]
] I would rather be late to that party than early, since
] it's so clear to me that when stocks go down next time,
] they're going to go down for real. I anticipate that we
] will see a huge decline, with the major averages falling
] over 50%.

Yikes!

If 2004 goes bad, it will go really bad