Stratfor: Geopolitical Intelligence Report - May 16, 2006

Civil Liberties and National Security

By George Friedman

USA Today published a story last week stating that U.S. telephone
companies (Qwest excepted) had been handing over to the National
Security Agency (NSA) logs of phone calls made by American
citizens. This has, as one might expect, generated a fair bit of
controversy -- with opinions ranging from "It's not only legal but
a great idea" to "This proves that Bush arranged 9/11 so he could
create a police state." A fine time is being had by all. Therefore,
it would seem appropriate to pause and consider the matter.

Let's begin with an obvious question: How in God's name did USA
Today find out about a program that had to have been among the most
closely held secrets in the intelligence community -- not only
because it would be embarrassing if discovered, but also because
the entire program could work only if no one knew it was under way?
No criticism of USA Today, but we would assume that the newspaper
wasn't running covert operations against the NSA. Therefore,
someone gave them the story, and whoever gave them the story had to
be cleared to know about it. That means that someone with a high
security clearance leaked an NSA secret.

Americans have become so numbed to leaks at this point that no one
really has discussed the implications of what we are seeing: The
intelligence community is hemorrhaging classified information. It's
possible that this leak came from one of the few congressmen or
senators or staffers on oversight committees who had been briefed
on this material -- but either way, we are seeing an extraordinary
breakdown among those with access to classified material.

The reason for this latest disclosure is obviously the nomination
of Gen. Michael Hayden to be the head of the CIA. Before his
appointment as deputy director of national intelligence, Hayden had
been the head of the NSA, where he oversaw the collection and
data-mining project involving private phone calls. Hayden's
nomination to the CIA has come under heavy criticism from Democrats
and Republicans, who argue that he is an inappropriate choice for
director. The release of the data-mining story to USA Today
obviously was intended as a means of shooting down his nomination
-- which it might. But what is important here is not the fate of
Hayden, but the fact that the Bush administration clearly has lost
all control of the intelligence community -- extended to include
congressional oversight processes. That is not a trivial point.

At the heart of the argument is not the current breakdown in
Washington, but the more significant question of why the NSA was
running such a collection program and whether the program
represented a serious threat to l... [ Read More (2.0k in body) ]

Civil Liberties and National Security

A senior federal law enforcement official tells ABC News the government is tracking the phone numbers we call in an effort to root out confidential sources.

"It's time for you to get some new cell phones, quick," the source told us in an in-person conversation.

!!!

...within the large pointless program there exists a small, sharply focused program that delivers something the White House really wants.

They aren't looking for Terrorists. They're trying to quash whistle blowers!

Is Bush going to write him back? Ahmadinejad and Bush should become pen pals.

Dear President Bush...

"I had thought I would be sentenced to death based on the emotions and anger toward me for the deaths on Sept. 11, but after reviewing the jury verdict and reading how the jurors set aside their emotions and disgust for me and focused on the law and the evidence ... I now see that it is possible that I can receive a fair trial even with Americans as jurors."

I must fully concur with the two opinions expressed so far in the thread. This, right here, is the win.

We couldn't have asked him to say something better..

Moussaoui Asks to Withdraw Guilty Plea - Yahoo! News

To those of you who don't know, our country has never been served by a more competent and professional military. For that reason, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's recent statement that "we" made the "right strategic decisions" but made thousands of "tactical errors" is an outrage. It reflects an effort to obscure gross errors in strategy by shifting the blame for failure to those who have been resolute in fighting. The truth is, our forces are successful in spite of the strategic guidance they receive, not because of it.

Why Iraq Was a Mistake

One of the jihadist Web sites cautioned its readers to "Beware of Google!!!" with specific warnings about its relatively new product Google Toolbar...

The posting advised Internet cafe users to set up a proxy -- a software program that erases digital footsteps such as Web addresses or other identifiable information -- before Web surfing...

"This kind of tradecraft is essential to survival," Hoffman said.

And now, your moment of zen....

"From a jihadist perspective, they are absolutely right. They should avoid Google like the plague," Brandt said.

Terrorists' Web Chatter Shows Concern About Internet Privacy

Googling around for Younis Tsouli produces some interesting links including this one:

TrackingTheThreat.com is database of open source information about the Al Qaeda terrorist network, developed as a research project of the FMS Advanced Systems Group. Our goal is to apply new technologies and software engineering approaches to open source intelligence while providing researchers and analysts with information about Al Qaeda.

This site has some interesting features:

Use the Network Navigator to perform graphical link analysis on the Al Qaeda network.

Also, take a look at the product suite that FMS Advanced Systems produces.

trackingthethreat.com

Iran has started moving its foreign exchange reserves out of Europe in a bid to shield the country from the threat of sanctions, reports suggest.

9/11 may have caught you by suprise, but whatever goes down with Iran, say you knew it was coming...

The 20th Anniversary of the Chernobyl Disaster comes around this April. Prepare for a blitz of documentaries on the History Channel, CNN, and other media outlets remembering this horrible event. Expect it all to be spun into reasons why Iran shouldn't have access to nuclear energy. Say you read about it on MemeStreams first.

The meme will go something like this: "If we can't build more plants ourselves to get out of our energy bind, why the hell should Iran? NUCLEAR ENERGY IS DANGEROUS!"

BBC NEWS | Business | Iran 'moves assets out of Europe'

The Army has approved a new, classified set of interrogation methods...

The techniques are included in a 10-page classified addendum to a new Army field manual...

Army and other Pentagon officials raised concerns that Mr. McCain would be furious at what could appear to be a back-door effort to circumvent his intentions.

"This is a stick in McCain's eye," one official.

Mr. McCain's measure, which the Senate has overwhelmingly approved, would require that only interrogation techniques authorized by the new Army field manual be used on prisoners held by the military....

So, if I understand this.. We have banned torture, but there is no way to actually tell if we just said we banned torture while classifying the information that pertains to how we torture... Or, ideally, if we have a good set of guidelines for interrogation that actually bans torture, but are keeping them secret so our interrogation methods are not publicly known so they can be trained for.

McCain is the only one who even has the appearance of being an honest broker here. Does he have access to see what the current guidelines are? This issue just can't fall off the radar without something happening that convinces the world, or at least many people like me, that we did in fact ban torture. So far, I'm not convinced.

New Army Rules May Snarl Talks With McCain on Detainee Issue - New York Times

Months after the Sept. 11 attacks, President Bush secretly authorized the National Security Agency to eavesdrop on Americans and others inside the United States to search for evidence of terrorist activity without the court-approved warrants ordinarily required for domestic spying, according to government officials.

This story is all over the media. That's a good thing.

Hopefully I'll have the chance soon to write some of my thoughts about the matter. It's very significant and will have massive long term ramifications.

Bush Lets U.S. Spy on Callers Without Courts - New York Times