The Counterterrorism Blog has posted a transcript of the tape made by the SITE Institute. The full video can be found via Laura Mansfield's site.

Here are some snippets, starting with Laura Mansfield:

This morning’s video tape is a striking contrast to the normal Al Qaeda videos of Zawahiri, which for several years have featured the terror leader in front of a curtain or fabric backdrop. The tape shows Zawahiri in what appears to be a studio, in front of a backdrop with photographs of Bin Laden's chief aid, Abu Hafs al Masri (who was killed in a 2001 US air raid in Afghanistan) and the World Trade Center exploding in flames.

In the message, Al Qaeda second-in-command Ayman al Zawahiri threatens the Israelis and the west in retaliation for the war in Lebanon.

Zawahiri’s key points are:

* The world is a battle field open in front of us.
* This war with Israel cannot be ended by ceasefires or treaties.
* This is a jihad and will continue until the religion of Allah rules the world
* Everyone taking part in these attacks will pay the price

Evan Kohlmann on the Counterterrorism Blog:

Many observers of the recent violence in Lebanon wondered if and when Sunni Muslims -- particularly Al-Qaida -- might respond sympathetically to their Shiite brethren among Hezbollah in south Lebanon. Some have quickly jumped at the news of a new video from Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri discussing the conflict in Lebanon as incontrovertible evidence of a "seismic shift" within the Muslim world towards a united Shiite-Sunni front against Israel and the West.

However, once again, it would behoove us all to listen to the language and words coming from Al-Qaida supporters and sympathizers, rather than trying to interpret Zawahiri's speech from a outside Western perspective. The truth is, within the community that supports Al-Qaida, there is no precise consensus yet on the meaning of Zawahiri's speech. However, the one comment that seems to resonate most frequently among extremist Sunnis is that, in no way, does this video take away from the dire, existential conflict between Sunnis and Shiites. At a maximum, this is being termed a public relations move by Al-Qaida intended to encourage its operatives to temporarily focus their anger on America and its allies, and waiting until later to deliver the same violent fate to the Shiites. At a minimum, others are suggesting that Zawahiri is merely encouraging Sunni Muslims to travel to Lebanon in order to fight Israel--separately from the Shiites--just as they did in Iraq beginning in 2003. In other words, Zawahiri is encouraging the development of a fully-functioning independent Al-Qaida unit in Lebanon, not its merging with Hezbollah.

According to Douglas Farah, cooperation between Hezbollah and Al-Qaida is not unheard of:

In the immediate aftermath of 9-11, the conventional wisdom in the intelligence community was that the Shi'ite Hezbollah and the Sunni al Qaeda did not operate together because of the religious divide between the two groups.

However, al Qaeda's own writings, and testimony of senior al Qaeda operatives in U.S. custody (Jamal al Fadl) recounted the extensive contacts bewtween the two organizations while bin Laden was in Sudan, including joint military and explosives training.

It has taken the conventional wisdom a long time to catch up with reality on the ground, but it is important to remember that things that were often considered inconceivable in the shadow infrastructure of non-state actors were simply based on our preconceptions, not reality.

If the Lebanese conflict drags on, it would be likely that al Qaeda would try to work again with its occassional ally in an alliance of convenience that could benefit both groups.