I blogged about the Norman, Oklahoma bomber a few days ago. The story only seems to get thicker. I am not drawing any conclusions, but I am paying attention. There may be something here.

First, let me establish one point which I'm basing my continued interest in this on. If this was in fact an act of terrorism that just didn't work out as planned, the best course of action would be to downplay it. If it was made a big deal of by the authorities and the media, it might as well have been a successful terrorist attack. As it stands right now, this is being downplayed. If that's because there is nothing there, then I'm just wasting words. If not, then I'm glad I'm taking note of this all. Either way, going on a journey of thought is never that bad of an idea, and useful in either case. Its not that hindsight is 20/20 and nothing else is, its that hindsight is always sharper. Always.. [rattle adjusts his glasses]

I'll skip over the preamble of facts pointing to this situation being a individual suicide, because I don't see many of them. I'll note them as I go along.. Everything seems to point to a larger scheme. If you take the Occam's Razor approach, its a stretch to come up with anything other than someone committing suicide in a manor that harkened to some kind of suicide bomber romance, or a botched terrorist attack. But I do feel it important to acknowledge the fact that this may be nothing. Don't go crazy screaming "cover-up" yet..

When it comes to breaking down the situation, this post on Tapscott's Copy Desk does a good job, so I'll start there and use that as a structural base. Here is a summary of his main points, click thru for the full context:

First, The Daily Oklahoman is reporting authorities found a large cache of bomb-making materials in Hinrichs' apartment.
Second, the proximity to the stadium suggests Hinrichs' target was the crowd, perhaps as people were leaving the game.
Third, why was Boren sufficiently familiar with Hinrichs to so quickly issue an opinion about his motive in the bombing?
Fourth, in one of the photos appearing in the media, Hinrichs appears to have a fresh beard, which is characteristic of new Muslim male converts.

Each has supporting points in the original post. Let me add my own special sauce...

His first point can go either way... If he was just some guy committing suicide in a manor inspired by some suicide bomber romance, this would play right into it. Sure his apartment would have a stock of bomb making materials on hand. I can envision him sitting there planning his own demise as he built bombs like children build RC cars. Surrounded by servos and radio controllers, the only things that truly bring him joy. That alone is something to worry me from a sociological perspective, but that's besides the point. The FBI can pass that aspect on to their psychologists, and leave the criminologists and the terror crew the rest of the cleanup. Something would still need to be learned from it, even if there was nothing there. However, on the other hand, this gets more suspicious considering his roommate, who was from Pakistan, has since pulled a disappearing act. I have not seen anything in the news about them finding the guy, but I'm sure they are looking. I'll get back to his roommate and living situation when I address part four.

His second point is valid as well, for both options. A key part of any suicide bomber fantasy is blowing people up. If we are still stuck on the idea of this being a individual suicide, we have to stop here, picture poor distraught Joel Hinrichs sitting on a bench, looking at the stadium, hearing the crowd cheer, and saying "goodbye cruel world" as he pulled the trigger on himself. "Well, at least he didn't feel the need to take anyone with him!" That's my idea of optimism. In reality, it sounds like he was on his way to a predefined kill-zone. One with many people. Maybe he was going to try to use his student pass to get into the stadium and blow himself there. Maybe he was sitting there waiting for people to start exiting from the game, the more tactical option from the perspective of not being detected.

And what about the reports that there was a second bomb the authorities found and the bomb squad detonated? Maybe the question we should be asking is: Which one went off? Isn't it a key piece of suicide bomber strategy to have a second bomb around to kill those who respond to the initial one? How are those second bombs triggered? It's possible the bomb that the bomb squad detonated was the initial bomb..

His third point is the one that tempts me to invoke "The Conspiracy" again, but then I know I can't be taken seriously, so I will not do that. Just pretend I did if you are reading for laughs. Borden, the president of the university, was an Oklahoma senator who happened to be on the Senate Intelligence Committee. This does not mean that by some cosmic circumstance it was in his realm this happened. No, that's what I'd be saying if I was invoking "The Conspiracy". What it means is that he would be more likely than most to have some tact in the handling of the followup. Think of who this guy has on his cell phone's speed dial, and vice versa. I said earlier that if this was really a botched terror attack, it would be downplayed. This is the guy who has taken the lead in the downplay. At the very least, the facts he did seem to know, he knew quickly.

Speaking of the intelligence community, another interesting post from TigerHawk quotes from Richard Clarke's book, Against All Enemies. Keep in mind when reading this, Richard Clarke didn't leave the intelligence community under the best of terms..

Another conspiracy theory intrigued me because I could never disprove it. The theory seemed unlike on its face: Ramzi Yousef or Khalid Sheik Muhammad had taught Terry Nichols how to blow up the Oklahoma Federal Building. The problem was that, upon investigation, we established that both Ramzi Yousef and Nichols had been in the city of Cebu on the same days. I had been to Cebu years earlier; it is on an island in the central Philippines. It was a town in which word could have spread that a local girl was bringing her American boyfriend home and that the American hated the U.S. government.

Yousef and Khalid Sheik Muhammad had gone there to help create an al Qaeda spinoff, a philippine affiliate chapter, named after a hero of the Afghan war against the Soviets, Abu Sayaff. Could the Al Qaeda explosives expert have been introduced to the angry American who proclaimed his hatred for the U.S. government? We do not know, despite some FBI investigation. We do know that Nichols's bombs did not work before his Philippine stay and were deadly when he returned. We also know that Nichols continued to call Cebu long after his wife returned to the United States. The final coincidence is that several Al Qaeda operatives had attended a radical Islamic conference a few years earlier in, of all places, Oklahoma City.

My previous post linked to an article that contained information on several links between Norman, Oklahoma and the 9/11 terrorists. This is only more to toss into that pot of circumstance. As for the connection between the federal building bombing and Al Qaeda... I think that's a little too thick. I don't know if I buy that. A link between Islamist groups in the area and Al Qaeda is more reasonable. A conveyance of bomb making techniques between Nichols and Islamists who desire to help someone harming America is somewhat reasonable. Anything further goes into that realm of cosmic circumstance I mentioned earlier, or at least very loose logic. I feel the need to mention it all anyway. Remember, I'm still not invoking "The Conspiracy", only mentioning it here and there.. Mostly for my own yuck-yucks..

Point four at least lets me get back down to earth and out of the realm of cosmic circumstance. I want to know more about this fellow's roommate. Lets establish one basic fact that all people have in common. If our environment is properly manipulated, we can be coerced into doing just about anything. From my understanding, under the right conditions, it takes about six months to brainwash a person into doing just about anything. Walking into a public place with a bomb strapped to you and blowing yourself up falls into that category. The right circumstance, frame of mind, comments here and there, the right conflicts created for you, etc.. Its a hard situation to set up, but it can be done. It's done all the time. Sometimes with a very controlled environment, sometimes with less. Its how we make soldiers, priests, spies, presidents, and consumers. Time and individual strength may vary, but truth is truth when presented as such. Your brain wants it. Yearns for it actually.. For evidence, there are people who go from average "really nice quiet intellectual guy" students to suicide bombers in six months all the time. Watch the news. Its on the news, sometimes. Modern psychology supports this. The smarter you are and the younger you are, the easier it is. Do you know what the quiet intellectual type does best? They listen. Its how suicide bombers are made and spies are broken. Its the blackest of the black arts.

The beard thing is a key. As I recall, Islamist martyrs are most likely to shave their beards before an attack. The timeline of the pictures is not clear. At the very least, the appearance of a beard means a conversion, as the beard is an act of piety. Beyond that, my knowledge of the culture isn't good enough to dive further. Given my ignorance of that aspect, it's easier to just leave it out of the equation. If someone wants to clear it up for me, go for it.

Multiple sites are reporting that Hinrichs recently attempted to buy ammonium nitrate from a local feed & seed place. Seems he was leaving the most risky stuff till last. Everyone knows that's the kind of thing that gets you flagged, especially in Oklahoma. He clearly already had what he needed to blow himself up. He was ready to do something, and act fast doing it. This makes me want to ask a few questions: At what points would it be assured that there would be a lot of people in that stadium? Were there several other times it could be assured the stadium would be packed? Was this time optimal in some way? If so, and this was a golden opportunity, I'd theorize he was put into "the zone" at just the right point in time, and a plan was in effect. That's not the type of thing you do on your own if you don't have a future planned for yourself. Its something that someone does for you. This kid's future involved death, heaven, and a bunch of virgins.

Anyway, that's enough of my rambling about this for now. Its only going to get thicker. In the meantime, read something about Harriet Miers... Here is something bad from conservative George Will and something good from the "liberal" New York Times. Well, its sorta good, if you are into the whole born-again thing, which I'm not..