] In the 1991 Gulf war the strategy of the US-led coalition
] was shaped around an overestimation of Iraqi strength.
] Saddam Hussein promised the "mother of all battles" and
] was said to have assembled the world's fourth-largest
] army, packed with battle-hardened veterans and noxious
] weapons. In the event, the Iraqi leader made every
] mistake in the staff college manual and by the time the
] serious ground fighting began the only strategic decision
] left for most of his troops was whether to run away or
] surrender.
]
] This time, the Iraqi position looks hopeless from the
] start: virtually no air force, air defences battered by
] US and British aircraft and an under-equipped and anxious
] army. Stretches of the country are already in opposition
] hands and more soon will be. The only conceivable Iraqi
] war plan involves conceding everything but Baghdad and a
] few strongholds and making a determined last stand. Mr
] Hussein may have nasty surprises for the invaders, such
] as igniting oil wells or releasing chemical weapons, but
] he cannot keep them in reserve since territory and
] systems will soon fall into enemy hands.

Title is misleading.. More like "Occupation may take longer then we believe"..

FT.com / The war may take longer than we believe