An interface should be effective, habituating, reliable, efficient, and tested. To the extent that doing so does not conflict with these essentials, an interface should also be attractive.

A summary of design rules, by Jef Raskin

Consider the case of aspirin. Suppose, for the sake of argument, that Bayer aspirin and store brand aspirin are identical products, but that Bayer costs twice as much because some consumers believe (falsely, in this example) that Bayer is better. Would we expect markets to eradicate this price difference? Since the Bayer brand name is trademarked, it is not (legally) possible to go into the business of buying the store brand aspirin and repackaging it in Bayer bottles. This inability to transform the store brand into Bayer prevents one method arbitrageurs might use to drive the two prices to equality. Another possibility for arbitrageurs would be to try to sell the more expensive Bayer aspirin short today, betting that the price discrepancy will narrow once the buyers of Bayer “come to their senses.” Short selling works like this: an arbitrageur would borrow some bottles from a cooperative owner, sell the bottles today and promise the owner to replace the borrowed bottles with equivalent Bayer bottles in the future. Notice that two problems impede this strategy. First, there is no practical way to sell a consumer product short, and second, there is no way to predict when consumers will see the error in their ways. These problems create limits to the forces of arbitrage, and in most consumer goods markets, the Law may be violated quite dramatically.

The aspirin example illustrates the essential ingredients to violations of the law of one price. First, some agents have to believe falsely that there are real differences between two identical goods, and second, there have to be some impediments to prevent rational arbitrageurs from restoring the equality of prices that rationality predicts. Can these conditions hold in ? financial markets, where transactions costs are small, short selling is permitted and competition is fierce?

The Law of One Price in Financial Markets

Anthony Cordesman:

It is becoming clearer and clearer that Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s offensive in Basra is more of a power struggle with Sadr than an effort to deal with security, “militias,” and “criminals.” What is far less clear is how this power struggle will play out, and what its implication will be for the US and Iraq as a whole.

There are three options and none of them have a predictable outcome: First, Maliki can win, defeat Sadr’s militia—the Mahdi Army, or Jaish al Mahdi (JAM)—and marginalize the Sadr movement. Second, Maliki can provoke Sadr into open violence and a new form of insurgency. Or, both sides become locked in a lingering intra-Shi’ite power struggle that mixes violence with political power plays.

The Shi’ite Gamble: Rolling the Dice for Iraq’s Future

The purpose of X2 is to identify future disruptions, opportunities, and competitive landscapes related to the content and dynamics of global science and technology innovation; to develop a new platform for understanding global innovation trends; and to present this information to policy- and decision-makers, as well as the general public, in a useful form.

X2

A presidential transition is a unique time in America and holds the promise of opportunity, as well as a possible risk to the nation’s security interests. The 2008- 2009 election marks the first presidential transition in the post-9/11 era, and is of concern to many national security observers. While changes in administration during U.S. involvement in national security related activities are not unique to the 2008- 2009 election, many observers suggest that the current security climate and recent acts of terrorism by individuals wishing to influence national elections and change foreign policies portend a time of increased risk to the current presidential transition period. Whether the enemies of the United States choose to undertake action that may harm the nation’s security interests during the 2008-2009 election, or the new President experiences a relatively peaceful period during the transition, many foreign and domestic policy and security challenges will await the new Administration. How the new President recognizes and responds to these challenges will depend heavily on the planning and learning that occurs prior to the inauguration. Actions can be taken by the outgoing President and President-elect that may ameliorate decision- making activities in the new administration. Whether an incident of national security significance occurs just before or soon after the presidential transition, the actions or inactions of the outgoing Administration may have a long-lasting effect on the new President’s ability to effectively safeguard U.S. interests and may affect the legacy of the outgoing President.

This report discusses historical national-security related presidential transition activities, provides a representative sampling of national security issues the next administration may encounter, and offers considerations and options relevant to each of the five phases of the presidential transition period. Each phase has distinct challenges and opportunities for the incoming administration, the outgoing administration, and Congress. This report will be updated as needed.

2008-2009 Presidential Transition: National Security Considerations and Options

Typography from the 1980s.

DVNO by JUSTICE

In this revealing documentary, Stephen Fry investigates the story of one of the most important machines ever invented - the Gutenberg Press.

The printing press was the world's first mass-production machine. Its invention in the 1450s changed the world as dramatically as splitting the atom or sending men into space, sparking a cultural revolution that shaped the modern age. It is the machine that made us who we are today.

Stephen's investigation combines historical detective work and a hands-on challenge. He travels to France and Germany on the trail of Johannes Gutenberg, the inventor of the printing press and early media entrepreneur. Along the way he discovers the lengths Gutenberg went to keep his project secret, explores the role of avaricious investors and unscrupulous competitors, and discovers why printing mattered so much in medieval Europe.

But to really understand the man and his machine, Stephen gets his hands dirty - assembling a team of craftsmen and helping them build a working replica of Gutenberg's original press. He learns how to make paper the 15th-century way and works as an apprentice in a metal foundry in preparation for the experiment to put the replica press through its paces. Can Stephen's modern-day team match the achievement of Gutenberg's medieval craftsmen?

BBC - BBC Four - The Medieval Season - Stephen Fry and the Gutenberg Press

Does being on the Colbert Show really provide a bump—a critical leap that vaults a writer, or a politician to superstardom?

The Colbert Bump is Real

Corporate prediction markets work like this: Employees, and potentially outsiders, make their wagers over the Internet using virtual currency, betting anonymously. They bet on what they think will actually happen, not what they hope will happen or what the boss wants. The payoff for the most accurate players is typically a modest prize, cash or an iPod.

The early results are encouraging. “The potential is that prediction markets may be the thing that enables a big company to act more like a small, nimble company again,” said Jeffrey Severts, a vice president who oversees prediction markets at Best Buy, the electronics retailer.

Betting to Improve the Odds

Urban planners at the end of the 19 century faced a "vexing" problem, writes Jill Jonnes: "how to connect the wealthy and influential island of Manhattan to the mainland and the rest of America." In Conquering Gotham, Jonnes chronicles the effort to make this connection, at least architecturally, with the construction of Pennsylvania Station and its tunnels. Jonnes ably recounts the technical challenges posed by a pioneering venture of such proportions, offering a refresher course in New York history along the way. But at its heart the book is an admiring biography of the "cultured, steely engineer" behind the plan: Alexander Cassatt (brother of artist Mary), whose efforts were stymied by politics, real estate battles, the limits of engineering -- and the fact that he was not from New York.

Globalization 1.0