MG Caldwell: The violence continues against security forces and innocent Iraqis during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Traditionally this is a time of great celebration; it has, instead, been a period of increased violence, not just this year, but during the past two years as well. The violence is indeed disheartening.

In Baghdad alone, we've seen a 22 percent increase in attacks during the first three weeks of Ramadan, as compared to the three weeks preceding Ramadan.

In Baghdad, Operation Together Forward has made a difference in the focus areas but has not met our overall expectations of sustaining a reduction in the levels of violence.

Hopefully Spc. Ziegler will appreciate my linking directly to the MNF web site.

MG Caldwell: 'The violence is indeed disheartening'

When Congress passed the McCain amendment last fall banning cruel treatment, CIA interrogators reportedly stopped working. Vice President Cheney had sought an exemption for the CIA -- but didn't get one. The administration apparently pushed the interrogators hard to resume their tactics, saying these techniques were still legal, but the CIA refused.

It seems the agency had learned an important lesson: ... secret, contorted legal opinions don't provide any real protection to CIA officers.

So the CIA demanded "clarity" -- from Congress.

If a CIA interrogator is indicted after this administration leaves office, it will not matter whether keeping a naked prisoner standing for 40 straight hours shocks Dick Cheney. It will matter whether it shocks the court.

This brings us back to the HRW op-ed in the Post last month.

Interrogators Beware

While the losses [of 9/11, of the first WTC attack, of Khobar Towers, of African embassies, of the Cole] were tragic, they may be put in perspective if we realize that 85,000 people have been murdered in the USA since 9/11 -- not one in a terror attack.

...

60 percent of Americans are ready to pack it in in Iraq. Why were Western men willing to die in such numbers rather than accept defeat in the early 20th century, but this generation is not?

...

Preventive war as the antidote to terror seems ... to have failed us. Democracy as the surest guarantee of US security ... seems a less persuasive proposition.

The cost of empire is too high, and our willingness to pay the butcher's bill has diminished.

One man's crisis is another man's opportunity, and Patrick Buchanan the isolationist is on the campaign trail.

Losing the Will to Fight

Yet all these conflicts [of the 20th century], terrible as they often were, may be considered the growth spasms of a vigorous democracy. Even the fissures that Vietnam opened in our society, with all the bad feelings they emanated for years to come, can be seen as an enduring lesson in liberty: When the government ran an undeclared war the people did not support, they put an end to it. In that war at home there was honor on both sides; early on in our escalation in Indochina, there were even mass rallies held in favor of the war.

Wrongheaded as those might now seem to have been, I prefer them to our current state of civic disengagement. The most disappointing realization about the war in Iraq is how little we care, how precious few demonstrators there are on either side of the issue. Just as the war exists for most of us on television, so we have subcontracted out our civic feeling to the angry rhetoric of so many ranting heads. We do not serve, we do not pay, we do not watch, and we do not object. Imagine how this might have worked in World War II. No matter how this war comes out, we have already lost.

The Quietest War

The war I knew was infinitely more complex, contradictory and elusive than the one described in the network news broadcasts or envisioned in the new field manual. When I finally left Baquba, the violent capital of Iraq’s Diyala Province, I found myself questioning many aspects of our mission and our accomplishments, both in a personal search for meaning and a quest to gather lessons that might help those soldiers who will follow me.

We learned that counterinsurgency cannot be conducted from afar.

But did we make a difference?

In theory, security should have improved with the development of capable Iraqi Army and police units. That did not happen. This is the central paradox of the Iraq war in fall 2006.

This paradox raises fundamental questions about the wisdom and efficacy of our strategy, which is to “stand up” Iraqi security forces so we can “stand down” American forces. Put simply, this plan is a blueprint for withdrawal, not for victory. Improving the Iraqi Army and police is necessary to prevail in Iraq; it is not sufficient.

Counterinsurgency is more like an election than a military operation.

Waging War, One Police Precinct at a Time

Rumsfeld's latest snowflake appears in today's Washington Post.

It was never going to be an easy mission. Not all the news about Afghanistan is encouraging. And yet, for all of the challenges the Afghan people face, there are many promising indicators.

Building a new nation is never a straight, steady climb upward. Today can sometimes look worse than yesterday -- or even two months ago. What matters is the overall trajectory: Where do things stand today when compared to what they were five years ago?

In Afghanistan, the trajectory is a hopeful and promising one.

Afghanistan: Five Years Later, By Donald H. Rumsfeld

O’Hanlon doesn't have much to say here, but the data in the chart are worthy of your review.

On balance, the data suggest that while Iraq is not lost, the United States and its allies there are hardly winning either.

In that vein, interestd readers should also check out the RAND report, Shaping the Future Air Force.

The State of Iraq: An Update

The Democrats are not fans of this report, calling it "unsophisticated."

Al Qaeda leaders wait patiently for the right opportunity to attack.

Al-Qaeda has metastasized its scale of influence by reaching out to like-minded Islamist extremist groups and inspiring new groups and individuals to emerge and carry out independent attacks.

We are not looking at Muslims who practice their faith fundamentally -- there is nothing wrong with practicing religion in a fundamental way.

"Not that there's anything wrong with that."

Intelligence experts agree that the funding to al-Qaeda amounts to much less than is raised by other terrorist groups, such as Hamas and Hezbollah.

I would be more concerned if bin Laden was able to attract hundreds of thousands of people to a widely publicized, televised rally in the hinterlands of the Northwest Frontier.

The report includes a short (one paragraph) sidebar on al-Suri, who was discussed at length in some of the recent articles I've recommended.

There's a figure entitled "The Terrorist Network in America" which shows an extensive presence by a wide variety of organizations. The text is vague as to what this means, but it suggests the activities are mostly fund-raising.

The minority view, led by Jane Harman, is interesting:

This paper is ... merely an assemblage of press clippings. ... This "threat assessment" adds no new information to the nation's understanding of the challenges ... The Committee should evaluate ... the value of the President's Domestic Surveillance Program. ... Has the program produced any results?

al-Qaeda: The Many Faces of an Extremist Threat | HPSCI [PDF]

A stark assessment of terrorism trends by American intelligence agencies has found that the American invasion and occupation of Iraq has helped spawn a new generation of Islamic radicalism and that the overall terrorist threat has grown since the Sept. 11 attacks.

Islamic radicalism, rather than being in retreat, has metastasized and spread across the globe.

The report says that the Iraq war has made the overall terrorism problem worse.

Spin that.

Spy Agencies Say Iraq War Worsens Terror Threat

The safety of America depends on the outcome of the battle in the streets of Baghdad.

Also:

Gen. Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, said the number of American military personnel killed in Afghanistan and Iraq, at roughly 3,000, was approaching the number of people killed in the attacks.

Back to the President:

America looks to the day when the people of the Middle East leave the desert of despotism for the fertile gardens of liberty, and resume their rightful place in a world of peace and prosperity.

Holy Shit. Did he just say that?

The Children of Israel were in the Sinai Desert for forty years. At the end of the forty years, Moses and most of that generation passed away. Joshua the son of Nun was now the leader, and he took them into the land of Canaan and took back the land from the descendants of Ham. They renamed the land "Israel."

President's 9/11 Address to the Nation