To gauge market “expectations,” real estate industry observers have increasingly referenced the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s nascent real estate futures market. This paper tests whether prices on that exchange have proved to be unbiased predictors of real estate prices. Empirical evidence suggests that prices for more distant contracts–futures contracts that expire in six months or more–have tended to predict larger home price declines than ultimately occurred. Prices for contracts that were closer to expiration, by contrast, were less susceptible to such bias.
