John Arquilla and David Ronfeldt, on analogies.

The conflict raging in Iraq has been compared to many earlier wars, but the best historical comparison has been largely overlooked. Identifying the right analog is important, because it can help US government and military leaders anticipate what may come next in Iraq and make better judgments about what actions to take.

Remember Alan Kay:

At PARC we had a slogan: "Point of view is worth 80 IQ points."

I would add a footnote:

"This goes both ways."

Outside View: The real analogy for Iraq