George Friedman has written a “geopolitical intelligence brief” entitled “The United States and the ‘Problem’ of Venezuela.” In that analysis, published under Friedman’s byline, but more likely written by one of his editorial assistants, concludes that the confrontation between President Hugo Chavez and the US government is irrelevant because Venezuelan oil exports continue flowing to the US, and these oil exports won’t be suspended because Chavez needs the US more than the US needs Venezuela. “Sometimes,” Friedman concludes, “there really isn’t a problem.”

Normally I would not respond to Friedman’s “analysis” publicly, because I worked five years with Stratfor (until Sept. 2, 2005) as the senior (and practically only) analyst responsible for the firm’s Latin America geopolitical analyses. However, after receiving over 150 e-mails from colleagues across the Americas in the past 12 hours requesting my reaction to his analysis, I have posted this response.

Hugo Chavez, George Friedman and Stratfor

Elected leaders need to govern from the center, not the ideological extremes.

The government must ensure that Defense officials are chosen on the basis of competence.

Do as I say ...

Zalmay Khalilzad offers a political blueprint

Lou Dobbs says his mission is to tell American viewers the truth, no matter how uncomfortable or controversial.

"There's nothing fair and balanced about me," he said, tweaking his Fox News rivals' slogan. "Because there's nothing fair and balanced about the truth."

"'He says, she says' journalism is a monstrous cop-out."

That sounds nice. But I found those sentiments rather quite at odds with this:

"People across the country tune in to Lou Dobbs because they know their views on immigration will be presented," said Rosemary Jenks, director of governmental relations at NumbersUSA, a policy group that favors reducing immigration. "He is a hero to a lot of people."

Apparently Dobbs is a "hero" to people who require daily re-affirmation of their existing views.

Dobbs's Outspokenness Draws Fans and Fire

"I look around," Trent Lott said, "and think, 'Am I the only one who thinks this is stupid?'"

Senator Ted Stevens, Republican of Alaska, said, "It's sort of arrogant of us, isn't it?"

Politics Trump Policy in an Election Year

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The CIA Director explains the impact of leaks.

The term "whistleblower" has been misappropriated. The sharp distinction between a whistleblower and someone who breaks the law by willfully compromising classified information has been muddied.

Too many of my counterparts from other countries have told me, "You Americans can't keep a secret."

The terrorists gain an edge when they keep their secrets and we don't keep ours.

Loose Lips Sink Spies

"Independence from oil imported from the Middle East," said Mr. Bustnes of the Rocky Mountain Institute, "will be achieved the day we are oil-free."

Much Talk, Mostly Low Key, About Energy Independence

The energy proposals set out on Tuesday by President Bush quickly ran into obstacles on Wednesday, showing how difficult it will be to take even the limited steps he supports to reduce the nation's reliance on foreign oil.

Bush's Goals on Energy Quickly Find Obstacles

This is an update to an earlier story about Locatecell.

In response to disclosures about phone records being sold on the Internet, politicians want federal regulators to verify that the biggest service providers are adequately protecting their customers' information.

Locatecell.com was offline Thursday, its site replaced with a message from GoDaddy.com asking the site's owner to call the domain registrar. Meanwhile, Celltolls.com had a note on its site saying that it was not currently accepting queries regarding Cingular Wireless phone numbers.

Occasionally, Congress works?

Politicians call for better phone record privacy | CNET News.com

Is there such a thing as an ethical spy?

One wonders if Spielberg is secretly behind this.

"There's a lot of pandering at the CIA," said Melvin A. Goodman, a CIA analyst from 1966 to 1990.

An Exotic Tool for Espionage: Moral Compass