Five years after September 11, 2001, al-Qaeda and other terrorist groups continue to threaten the lives and well being of Americans and the security of our friends and allies. This study first examines how al-Qaeda has changed since September 11. It then turns to an analysis of the broader global jihadist movement — al-Qaeda and affiliated or associated terrorist groups or groups that may not be formally part of the al-Qaeda network but that have assimilated its worldview and concept of mass-casualty terrorist attacks. These groups, the authors believe, are where the center of gravity of the current global terrorist threat now lies. They conclude by setting out a four-pronged strategy against terrorist groups: Attack the ideological underpinnings of global jihadism; seek to sever the links — ideological and otherwise — between local and global jihadists; deny sanctuaries to terrorists; and strengthen the capabilities of front-line states to counter local terrorist threats.

Beyond al-Qaeda: Part 1, The Global Jihadist Movement

“This war is more about will and perception than firepower. We have concluded that, in that sense, we are not equipped to attack the enemy. We must attack the intangible part of the network if we are going to win.”

To win against terrorism DOD networks must be innovative

On 10 November, the website of the Islamic Renewal Organization, a Saudi dissident group headed by Muhammad al-Mas'ari and based in the United Kingdom, posted several links to a new audio message issued by Shaykh Abu-Hamzah al-Muhajir, AKA Abu-Ayyub al-Masri, leader of Al-Qa'ida Organizations in Iraq.

The message recorded by "Al-Furqan Foundation for Media Production at the Ministry of Information of the Islamic State of Iraq" is entitled: "The command is for none but Allah." (Part of a Koranic verse)

The audiotape begins with the recitation of the following Koranic verses: ...

Laura Mansfield provides a translated transcript of the audio message. She also offers the audio message for download. Other download locations are offered here.

I wonder whether the wise of Romans realize that they have become slaves and mercenaries for Persia who fight unpaid.
...
Do you think that we sacrificed our blood to leave ... the people of the south as an easy target for the Jews of Esfahan?

I sat among a group of Iranian soldiers watching "Lebanon, My Love" ("Lobnan eshq-e man") in a movie theater in Shiraz. Of the two general types of Iranian action films -- killing Iraqis and killing Israelis -- it was the latter. People cheered as the Hezbollah members infiltrated into the southern Lebanon security zone and ambushed the Israelis. Every time a Zionist was killed, there would be loud cheers. When the "freedom fighters" approached an unsuspecting Israeli, those around me would shout "kill the Jew!" in anticipation.

Once I have camera, using my experience in Hollywoods, I producing some new moviefilms - 'Dirty Jew', 'Dirty Jew 2', 'Attack of the Jew Claw', 'Jew Plague', 'Jew Plague 2', 'Help, there is a Jew in my Kitchen' and 'Where is my money, I think it was the Jews that take it'. I hoping that Mel Gibsons will come and direct some of these film.

...
I announce the integration of all the formations that we have established, ... putting at your disposal and direct orders 12,000 fighters, who constitute the army of Al-Qa'ida. All of them have pledged an allegiance to die in the cause of God, as well as more than 10,000 others who are still not fully prepared materially. Their eyes are full of tears out of sadness that they are still unable to contribute.
...
Most of the people are like the herds which do not know why they have been created and what is their objective.
...
You should leniently call for the good and preach against evil especially since the infidel Ba'th Party had confused the people vis-a-vis their religion. The prophet, peace be upon him, said: "God likes leniency in everything." An Arab beduin urinated in his mosque and the people shouted at him not to do so. The prophet, may peace be upon him, said: Do not interrupt him. Then he asked for a bucket of water to be poured on the urine. The God's religion is leniency. You should not resort to extremism and exaggeration. The prophet, peace be upon him, said: "Anyone who argues with the religion will be defeated by the religion." Almighty God says: "He has chosen you, and has imposed no difficulties on you in religion; And Allah hath full power and control over His affairs; but most among mankind know it not." (Koranic verse)

Al-Muhajir Pledges Allegiance to Al-Baghdadi, Threatens US, Europe | Laura Mansfield

Today seems like a good day to re-recommend Rumsfeld's last public snowflake.

It was never going to be an easy mission. Not all the news about Afghanistan is encouraging. And yet, for all of the challenges the Afghan people face, there are many promising indicators.

Building a new nation is never a straight, steady climb upward. Today can sometimes look worse than yesterday -- or even two months ago. What matters is the overall trajectory: Where do things stand today when compared to what they were five years ago?

In Afghanistan, the trajectory is a hopeful and promising one.

A few Afghanistan news tidbits:

Kiwi Troops Destroy Opium In Afghanistan

They didn't actually seize it, but they did a really good job burning it.

Afghanistan mission worthwhile, Clinton tells luncheon audience

Bill Clinton today affirmed the need for American and Canadian forces to stay in Afghanistan.

Clinton said that it had been a "serious mistake" for the United States to invade Iraq at the same time that it also had troops involved in Afghanistan.

Winning in Afghanistan is "far, far more important, in terms of protecting Canada and America against terror," than Iraq, he said.

I'm sure that sounds snappy at a luncheon, but exactly how do you "win" Afghanistan? At least Iraqis can sell oil. It seems to me the best you can hope for is to stave off failure indefinitely.

Setting those poppies on fire is about as productive as a flag burning protest. What are we doing to encourage a stronger civil society in Afghanistan? At least Pakistani newspapers make room for Britney. Are you going to see that in the Afghan press?

Afghanistan: Five Years Later, By Donald H. Rumsfeld

Last week I recommended a news story about the madrasa raid in Pakistan.

Stratfor is now reporting that Ayman al-Zawahiri was the intended target of this attack, which is said to have killed 80 people.

Initial reports suggested that he may have been hit. Now it is looking less likely, but he has not been heard from since the attack.

If Zawahiri is still alive, we should expect to see a new "proof of life" video within the next week.

This Stratfor article explores succession planning within al Qaeda Central.

In the interim, however, there is a question to be pondered: What if "proof of life" does not emerge? ... Supposing that al-Zawahiri could have been killed by the recent airstrike -- or will killed be by a future airstrike in the same region -- who might emerge to fill the power void?

Al Qaeda: The Next Generation

Chants of "Down with America" and "Down with Musharraf" rang out as the tribesmen gathered.

The Afghan government hailed the strike on the madrasa and hoped Pakistani forces would continue its militant crackdown.

"We welcome and support this act, and hope that this is the beginning of more such operations," Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman Zahir Azimi told Reuters in Kabul.

Islamist politicians said the attack on the school was really carried out by a US Predator drone aircraft, and the Pakistani army was covering up its acquiescence by claiming responsibility.

Nowhere is Musharraf's alliance with the United States in a war on terrorism more unpopular than in the Pashtun tribal belt straddling the Pakistan-Afghan border.

Pakistani Tribals Seethe Over Airstrike on Madrasa

Interesting.

“We received confirmed intelligence reports that 70 to 80 militants were hiding in a madrasa used as a terrorist-training facility, which was destroyed by an army strike, led by helicopters,” Maj. Gen. Shaukat Sultan, a military spokesman, told The Associated Press.

“This area is not an area where there can be any training camp,” said Qazi Hussain Ahmed, the leader of Jamaat-e-Islami. “This is actually tantamount to a declaration of war on Pakistan.”

Pakistan Says It Killed 80 Militants in Attack on Islamic School

The President’s Iraq war is lost.

...

Every one of the proposals coming from outside the real Administration starts from the assumption that its policy has failed. ... [B]etween the President’s resolve to persist in folly and the public’s instinct to be rid of Iraq there is a range of choices that could prevent the disaster from inflicting permanent damage on American interests. This kind of clear, rational thought is less heartless -- even, in the end, less defeatist -- than willful blindness.

That would make a great Democrat bumper sticker, wouldn't it? "Clinton '08: Less heartless than willful blindess"

On a related note, over the weekend I ran across Joan Didion's Political Fictions, which I now see was listed as one of Amazon.com's Best of 2001. It caught my eye after having read her most recent NYRB piece on Cheney.

Alternative Realities | George Packer in The New Yorker

The larger problem is that terrorism has created an atmosphere in which no official wants to be the one who gives a visa to an Al Qaeda operative, while there is no professional price for barring a professor with unpopular ideas or for making a graduate student miss a semester of school.

Don't blame me! It isn't my fault! I told the front office not to let him in! That's what I said. And I said that three years ago. Yes, I did. You should talk to the front office.

The United States should grant Tariq Ramadan a visa, not because he has an inalienable right to one but in the interest of the national good. The continuing effort to keep him out is a strategic mistake, and it shows a depressingly familiar failure on the part of the Administration to grasp the nature of the conflict with Islamist radicalism.

A strategy based on prevention is likely to prolong that which is to be prevented, or at least the infrastructure of prevention. (If the CIA could have avoided the collapse of the Soviet Union, would they?)

How many years of zero domestic attacks are required before we can declare victory?

How many violent extremsists does it take to justify a "war"?

In a twist on Matthew 18:20, "For where two or three come together against my name, there am I against them."

KEEP OUT | George Packer in The New Yorker

The debate over prisoners is not about whether some field agent can dunk Osama bin Laden’s head to learn the location of the ticking bomb, as one senator suggested last week. It is about whether the United States can confront terrorism without shredding our democratic heritage.

Bush Untethered