This report from late May provides background and analysis on the situation in Somalia. Expect Somalia's frenzied paralysis to continue. At present, there is no political force capable of prevailing on its own and no external power that is willing or has the capacity to impose a solution. The new and complicating thread in the web is the I.C.U. and Islamism. Look in the near term for persisting waves of tension between the I.C.U. and the A.R.P.C.T., as all the other foreign and domestic forces struggle to position themselves around the central confrontation. The complexity and uncertainty of the political situation ensures that most actors will try to hedge their bets, lowering the chances for conflict resolution. The political configuration of the web has changed and become more fraught, but the familiar tangles and knots remain.
Even without taking the long view, there is not really much "news" in the latest round of reportage from Somalia. One wonders if the upswing in US national coverage is manufactured. Somalia's Tangled Web Becomes Contorted | PINR |