Decius wrote:
] Seeing as the number of people who voted this year was so much
] higher than last, if the percentage is the same, then they did
] mobilize a large number of people.

That argument doesn't make any sense to me. It suggests the Democrats were out there trying to get out the vote among those who say they don't go to church regularly.

I think more is being made of this issue than is valid. These comparisons seem to neglect the most obvious factor: the passage of time. I offer a few simple data points:

In 2000, approximately 105 million total votes were cast.
In 2004, approximately 116 million total votes were cast.

That's an increase of 11 million votes, or 8.6 percent.

According to the US Census Bureau, the US population has grown by more than 12 million people between 2000 and November 2004. The voting-age population increased by 8 million between July 2000 and July 2003, and the overall population has grown by nearly 4 million since July 2003. In 2003, the voting-age population was 80 percent of the total population.

By those numbers, population growth may account for 87% of the increase in voter turnout for 2004.

While this population growth does not account for all of the increase in votes, it is a significant contributing factor.

] California is a blue state.

Los Angeles and San Francisco are blue cities. California has a Republican governor. It's more complicated than that.

In California, Bush won 36 counties. Kerry won only 20, and his margin of victory was less than 10 percent in 5 of those 20.

San Bernardino county voters chose Bush (56%) over Kerry (43%). Yet they also voted in favor of Proposition 71 (52%). In San Diego, 52% voted for Bush and 58% supported Prop 71.

You'll find the same trend for Orange, Ventura, Riverside, San Joaquin, San Luis Obispo, Butte, Inyo, Tuolumne, and Nevada counties.

RE: The Values-Vote Myth