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Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long

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Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long
Topic: Economics 10:32 pm EST, Feb 17, 2009

A highly recommended interview with Ray Dalio:

Everybody should, at this point, try to understand ... that we are in a D-process. The D-process is a disease of sorts that is going to run its course.

2009 and 2010 will be the years of bankruptcies and restructurings. Loans will be written down and assets will be sold. It will be a very difficult time. It is going to surprise a lot of people. Everybody will be second-guessing everybody else.

If you think that restructuring the banks is going to get lending going again and you don't have to restructure the other pieces -- the mortgage piece, the corporate piece, the real-estate piece -- you are wrong.

There are too many nonviable entities. This is basically a structural issue. The '30s were very similar to this.

In late 2009, or more likely 2010, it is going to be a buying opportunity of the century.

From 1998, Stewart Brand:

This is a cross-generational issue. It's caring for children, grandchildren. In some cultures you're supposed to be responsible out to the seventh generation -- that's about 200 years.

From a year ago, Barry Ritholtz:

You're supposed to raise your standard of living by working harder, being clever, earning more income -- not by using your long-term savings. And now this current generation is pretty much fucked.

From 2007:

"Mom, we killed women on the street today. We killed kids on bikes. We had no choice."

Recently:

It’s hard to get people to do something bad all in one big jump, but if you can cut it up into small enough pieces, you can get people to do almost anything.

From late 2008, Peter Schiff:

We need a serious recession in this country, and the government needs to get out of the way, and let it happen.

Recession? No, It's a D-process, and It Will Be Long



 
 
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