Are We in a Recession?

Six experts assess the current state and forecast the future direction of the American economy.

Here's Morgan Stanley's Stephen Roach:

Home prices are likely to fall for the nation as a whole in 2008, the first such occurrence since 1933.

Here is Laura Tyson, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisors:

The economy faces a vicious downward spiral of foreclosures, declining property values and mounting losses on mortgage-backed securities and related financial assets.

... huge waves of foreclosures will depress the price of residential real estate still further. Plummeting real estate values and escalating foreclosures will cause further losses on mortgage-related securities and will further burden American consumers already dealing with higher energy prices and substantial debt.

Here's the current president of NBER:

There is a substantial risk of a recession in 2008.

More:

Even if the economy avoids a recession, the road ahead will be rocky.

And more:

Easy money, it seems, was an illusion. Society was not so rich as it seemed.

You Can Almost Hear It Pop