noteworthy wrote:

With every passing day, Johnathan Rapley's conception of the New Middle Ages seems increasingly likely.

Decius wrote:

I don't follow how this comment relates to the context. Most of the news out of Iraq seems positive. Of course its complicated and fragile, but clearly this is progress. Worrying that too many refugees might return is a good problem to have.

I am somewhat at a loss to understand you, but I will attempt to highlight a few things that are not quite so positive. (As Packer noted, the war is Kaleidoscopic, and the lag is really bad. It's like we are watching a war in a galaxy half a light year away.)

1. Amar has taken justice into his own hands, vowing to avenge Jafaar's death 100 times over. Amar 'works for' (gets paid by) the Americans, who have no idea he is a massive serial killer on the side. Deception abounds. No one trusts anyone.

2. The people in charge are warlords, not police. Presently, the violence is suppressed, but the underlying forces are unresolved. With an eye on the clock, the Americans have resigned themselves to arming and training their former enemies, so that at least someone is in charge, knowing all the while that no one can be trusted. Increasingly, America's only leverage is its impending departure. In the vacuum that follows, power will accrue to the two-gun-toting maniacal warlords, not to the technocrats, whose most notable recent accomplishment is a restaurant opening, apparently. (Never mind that people are generally unwilling to travel or be outside after dark.)

3. Most displaced Iraqis do not want to go back to their homes. They have given up on Iraq. Still, the returnees are not "a good problem to have", because many of their homes are now occupied (illegally) by people from opposing sects. Mrs. Aasan's family fully expected to get attacked when traveling after dark. She was "thrilled and relieved" that they managed to cheat death that night.

In regard to the Rapley reference, I was pointing in particular to these:

The country is drifting "towards a warlord state, along a Basra model, with power devolved to local militias, gangs, tribes, and power-brokers, with a purely nominal central state."

Ameriya is a closed zone, surrounded by high concrete walls. Only pedestrians are allowed through the two Iraqi army checkpoints out of the suburb. The "knights" are the only authority inside.

"This is Ameriya, not Iraq!"

Biden ... who has been praised by his rivals as a thoughtful voice on Iraq, ... frames discussions ... around his plan to create strong regional governments in Iraq ...

So here you have a collection of autonomous city states, strongly opposed and intermittently warring with each other. Although the central state nominally controls the countryside, in practice it is a no-man's land, with no expectation of safe, free movement from city to city. Inside, the cities are ruled by authoritarian gangs, and corruption is rampant. There is no law -- only the whims of the men with guns.

Decius wrote:

I also don't understand George Packer's comment that these developments were "unanticipated by almost everyone on the American side of the looking glass."

He should have addressed that in his next post. Read it and see what you think.

I agree that calls for immediate withdrawal are unhelpful at best, and quite possibly much worse.

RE: Must Read: Iraq Round-Up