We present an analytically tractable model of Internet evolution at the level of Autonomous Systems (ASs). We call our model the Multiclass Attraction (MA) model. All of its parameters are measurable based on available Internet topology data. Given the estimated values of these parameters, our analytic results accurately predict a definitive set of statistics characterizing the AS topology structure. These statistics are not parts of model formulation. The MA model thus closes the measure-model-validate-predict loop. We develop our model in stages adding increasing detail characterizing dynamic interaction between Internet ecosystem players. We validate each stage using recent results in Internet topology data analysis. We describe the emergence of ASs, peering links formation, bankruptcies and multihoming. Our model also explains how certain circumstances naturally lead to consolidation of providers over time, unless some exogenous force interferes.

Other papers by the authors: Graph Annotations in Modeling Complex Network Topologies, Systematic Topology Analysis and Generation Using Degree Correlations, and Compact Routing on Internet-Like Graphs.

Evolution of the Internet AS-Level Ecosystem