It appears that there are enormous differences of opinion as to the probability of a failure with loss of vehicle and of human life. The estimates range from roughly 1 in 100 to 1 in 100,000. The higher figures come from the working engineers, and the very low figures from management. What are the causes and consequences of this lack of agreement? Since 1 part in 100,000 would imply that one could put a Shuttle up each day for 300 years expecting to lose only one, we could properly ask "What is the cause of management's fantastic faith in the machinery?"

Linked from Dagmar's 6 dumbest ideas in computer security.

[Richard Feynman was one of the smartest guys this country has ever seen, and in some ways one of the luckiest as well. If the guys at NASA didn't read this before he died, then they probably shouldn't be at NASA]

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