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Greenspan: China Revaluation Won't Help

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Greenspan: China Revaluation Won't Help
Topic: Business 2:33 pm EDT, May 23, 2005

] A move by China to revalue its currency "does not follow
] that that will lower our overall trade balance,"
] Greenspan said. "Indeed, it's probably quite unlikely."
]
]
] That's because companies are likely to turn to other
] countries, such as Thailand or Malaysia for goods, rather
] than U.S. producers. "So essentially what we will find is
] we're importing from a different area, but we will be
] importing the same goods," Greenspan said.

Yes, more mainstream news sources... Here's something that I don't think these guys have considered though. Everyone wants China to de-link, the "real" value of the yuan is something like 50% higher than what it trades at. So the real problem lies in the fact that the Chinese are holding something on the line of half a TRILLION to a TRILLION dollars worth of the current US national debt.

De-linking the currency will mean the value of those holdings will take a HUGE hit. So before they de-link, they have to dump those. But of course, they can't, because dumping that much on the market would cause the value to tank anyway. Catch-22.

The Chinese option at this pont is, take a huge hit to their economy, or let us take a huge hit to ours (with a secondary one to theirs) At some point some bean counter will getthis all figured out and the dominoes will get shoved, but either way, I don't see anything pretty coming out of this one.

Greenspan: China Revaluation Won't Help



 
 
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