With the threat of a civil war looming in the south, Nouri al-Maliki’s police chief in Basra narrowly escaped assassination in the crucial port city, while in Baghdad, the spokesman for the Iraqi side of the US military surge was kidnapped by gunmen and his house burnt to the ground.

See? The surge is working! Violence is down, so we have to keep our guys there. Wait, violence is up so we have to keep our... Enough already!

Here, this is your BEST CASE SCENARIO. We pull every out right now, let the Sunnis Shi'ites, and Kurds kick the crap out of each other for the next 6 months to a year, try to keep the Turks from invading what will soon be greater Kurdistan, try to keep the Iranians from invading to annex the eastern half of Iraq (that's the part with the oil in it) and get the hell out of the way.

Don't like that one? Here, this is your worst case.

Areas of Baghdad fall to militias as Iraqi Army falters in Basra - Times Online