Now that the nominating process is up, I wanted to record my expectations for the general election (mostly so I can point and go "SEE!"). If we get Obama-McCain:
Obama gets the usual democratic areas, New England (maybe dropping like New Hampshire or Vermont, someone up there always seems to go against the grain for some reason) and the left coast. He also gets all the states that stayed in the Union in 1861, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky or Missouri could flip, but the rest are solid blue, and taking three out of four of those states would not surprise me. He also picks up 2-3 from the normally red south, Florida, Georgia, a Carolina, Louisiana? Finally out west, he might get one or two, but enh. Final count in the electoral college 330-210 or bigger. 350 is easily in reach. Obama wins. If we get Clinton-McCain:
Clinton gets New England, like Obama, and the left coast. Now things change. Clinton still gets New York and Jersey, but the midwest splits. She loses Missouri and the entire south and west. Final result, 2004 all over again with the winner up in the air. The difference will be close enough that flipping any of Pennsylvania, Ohio or Indiana from the winner to the loser would change the winner. Count in the college, 287-273. Now, toss a huge event out there (someone nukes a port, W bombs Iran, Black Thursday) and I think things slope even harder to the Democrats side (8 years of you guys and this is the protection you do? F-Off!). McCain needs a Hillary nomination or the second coming. Feel free to make other predictions! |
