] there are parts of the world where Washington very much
] wants to be able to predict when a nation will slip into
] a condition of lawless failure.
]
] To that end, DARPA, the Pentagon%u2019s extreme science
] division, is doling out about $500,000 to BAE and a trio
] of Massachusetts Institute of Technology professors to
] develop software that could model the circumstances that
] give rise to nation-state failure and collapse.

This would be very useful if it could be used to pinpoint
interventions that would prevent the final melt-down into
chaos.

RED HERRING | Nation Failure Warning System

David "Netwar" Ronfeldt has written a new essay for First Monday.

Al Qaeda and its affiliates are operating much like a global tribe waging segmental warfare. This paper describes the dynamics of classic tribes: what drives them, how they organize, how they fight. Al Qaeda fits the tribal paradigm quite well. Thus, continuing to view Al Qaeda mainly as a cutting–edge, post–modern phenomenon of the information age misses a crucial point: Al Qaeda and affiliates are using the information age to reiterate ancient patterns of tribalism on a global scale. The war they are waging is more about virulent tribalism than religion. The tribal paradigm should be added to the network and other prevailing paradigms to help figure out the best policies and strategies for countering these violent actors.

Al Qaeda and its affiliates: A global tribe waging segmental warfare?

] Americans don't believe the government is doing enough
] with technology to improve homeland security, according
] to a national survey conducted jointly by CNET News.com
] and Harris Interactive.

Americans are correct in this matter

Poll: Antiterror tech plans are flawed | CNET News.com

Know Thy Enemy.

The cold war intelligence model in which analysts became specialists is ill-suited to the challenge of counterterrorism. Incremental changes implemented since 9/11 are not enough. Policymakers must build a new intelligence system to fight terrorism.

Nearly two years after 9/11, it is clear that actions couched as emergency measures represent important building blocks for a new generation of intelligence policy.

Building Intelligence to Fight Terrorism