Jeremy wrote:
] The checkered history of predicting the future has
] dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects
] of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern
] computers, transform our ability to reason about the future.
] The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to
] long-term policy analysis (LTPA).
]
] Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range
] of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across
] them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors
] discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of
] decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty.

The authors include the equations and parmeters for the model used in the study as an appendix, it would be pretty easy to replicate their results.

RE: Shaping the Next One Hundred Years | RAND