] The map gives the superficial impression that the "red
] states" dominate the country, since they cover far more
] area than the blue ones. However, as pointed out by many
] others, this is misleading because it fails to take into
] account the fact that most of the red states have small
] populations, whereas most of the blue states have large
] ones. The blue may be small in area, but they are large
] in terms of numbers of people, which is what matters in
] an election.
]
]
] We can correct for this by making use of a cartogram, a
] map in which the sizes of states have been rescaled
] according to their population.

[ Neat. Particularly the last two maps... -k]

Election result maps

] The dollar index, a measure of the dollar against a
] basket of currencies, extended a slide to a nine-year
] low.

This is going to require a little explanation as to why this is important. A large portion of the US economy is dependant on imports. We'll start with cars. Currently the #1 domestic car manufacturer is GM followed by Ford and Toyota (yes, that's right, Toyota). The trick here is, no one makes a car anymore with all domestic parts. Toyota obviously makes a good number of their parts in Japan where they are brought over and installed in US cars, GM does similar things, primarily in Mexico, and Ford and Chrysler both do a good amount of their construction in Canada, which means the dollar sliding across the board will increase prices for DOMESTIC products. The sliding dollar will also cause increased pressure on import prices, so things actually made in other places will be more expensive as well.

Because we're an "import" economy, this means that costs are going up, but there is no concurrent increase in revenue, so wages (the demand side of that supply-demand equation remain stagnant. This also applies in other areas as well. The computers we're reading this on are most likely made out of all, or nearly all, imported parts and just assembled here, and those two products are not unique, far from it in fact.

The results on the international markets has already started this morning, with the Nikkei (the Japanese version of the Dow) down a bit under a percent, with expected slides in US companies on the German and British exchanges later today. We'll see how that goes.

One thing that will prove interesting will be oil. With the dollar sliding, one would expect that the price of oil will increase further. This may not actually be the case, but there's a pretty big BUT at the end of this. Oil prices are universally done in terms of US dollars. If you're in Germany, you take your Euros, buy dollars and then use those dollars to buy oil. This is something that was done by of all people OPEC. Thirty odd years ago, their #1 trading partner was us, and so to make oil transactions simple globally, they benchmark the price of oil in dollars. It worked for them and so now, all oil exporting companies/nations handle this pretty much the same way. They sell oil for dollars.

So, what happens to the price of oil? Good question. Other countries, notably European ones are in theoretically good shape. Their money is worth more, so oil costs less. Some other countries, notably Japan are going to get squeezed. They export heavily to us, so the sliding dollar hurts them, pretty badly in fact. But, the sliding dollar also means that oil is less expensive. The bottom line I think is that the sliding dollar hurts them more than it helps them. Oil is cheaper, but because we're not buying as much stuff, they don't need the oil and so they aren't helped by the decreased costs as much as they're... [ Read More (0.2k in body) ]

Yahoo! News - Dollar Hits New Low, Gold at 16-Yr High

[ Yeah. -k]

Going out of the country?

Things are often funny because they are true. I'm watching the Daily Show right now, and they just made a point that made me laugh out loud at first and then, well, it really pissed me off. It goes back to previous comments I've made about the split in this country being urban vs. rural.

As we know, voters for Bush overwhelming said Moral Values and Terrorism where their top concerns in the election. Voters for Kerry cited Iraq and the Economy. See the BBC article in my MemeStream.

Now, consider that by and large the "Red States" where people are really concerned about Terrorism are places where there is almost no practical risk of a Terrorist attack. Al'Q is not going to set off a dirty bomb in Nebraska. Al'Q is not going to deploy chemical weapons in Arkansas. Al'Q is not going to crash airplanes into buildings in Montana. There are several exceptions to this, but most of the places where the risk of Terrorism exists are "Blue States."

Manhatten, where terrorist attacks actually occured, and is still the highest risk area, voted Kerry by 82%!
Washington DC, where terrorist attacks actually occured, and is still the second highest risk area, voted Kerry by 90%!

Furthermore, even in "Red States" any terrorist attack is still likely to happen in an Urban area. The urban counties in Atlanta went Kerry by 60% and 73%.

The Daily show went on to note that the gay people that the Red states are so concerned about also tend to live in urban areas.

Their response, from New York, was to thank the Red States for "saving us from ourselves."

Daily Show on the Election

] Some of you are dismayed by the emergence of a huge
] voting bloc of churchgoers. Stop viewing this as a
] threat, and start viewing it as an opportunity. Socially
] conservative blue-collar workers don't believe in the
] free market. They believe in the work ethic. Bush wins
] their votes by equating the free market with the work
] ethic. Show them where the free market betrays the work
] ethic, and they'll vote for the party of the work
] ethic -- you -- against the party of the free market.

[ Saletan weighs in with advice for Dems. -k]

Democratic Values - How to start winning the red states. By William Saletan

] Religion - rather than class, ethnic origin or education
] - has become the key determinant of voting in the 2004
] presidential race, according to an exit poll conducted by
] the Associated Press news agency.

Some exit poll statistics here. This election was decided by Conservative Christians who came out to vote because of the marriage amendments. Kerry spent too much time on the Daily Show and not enough time in Church. Stupid old conservatives vote, because they like imposing their will on others. Stupid young liberals tend to stay home and watch TV, because they don't understand the reality of whats going on.

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Election reveals divided nation

It appears that Bush has won. It appears that the Republicans have control of the House and Senate. This is a complete victory for the Reds.

I offer the following predictions:

On the WOT:

Iraq will slowly become an Islamic fundamentalist state. The U.S. will be largely out of there within a year and on to Pakistan. We'll get Bin Laden, but Islamic Fundamentalism will continue to fester and will rear it's head again in a decade or so. Bush will be seen as having won the WoT in the short term. You'll feel safe. You'll focus on domestic issues in the next election.

Domestic:

The economy will improve considerably as the security concerns wane. The social security nightmare looms. You will see safety valves that allow wealthy people to protect their savings from the coming cataclysm. If you are smart you will save as much as you can over the coming years.

You'll see some barking about a flat tax. I don't think it will actually happen in this session. They are setting the stage for 2008.

You'll get faster internet access, from freed RBOCs. You'll see hydrogen infrastructure appear in the odd place like electric car chargers are today.

The health care situation will continue to deteriorate. I do not take the Republican's proposals on this matter seriously. I'm not saying they won't make a serious proposal. This issue is impacting our international competitiveness. I'm saying they haven't made a serious proposal yet.

I predict that you will see an amendment to the U.S. Constitution passed within a year. I believe that several amendments will be passed within 4 years.

Early:
Gay Marriage
Flag Desecration

Later on:
Abortion Ban
Public (Read as Government) Display of Religious Iconography
Prayer in School

Maybe:
Victim's Rights (Which is a misnomer. Read as "Plaintiff Right's" in MOST contexts. FYI this is the only one on the list that is bi-partisan. I say maybe because it has logical flaws you could fly a plane through, and it doesn't have widespread grassroots support.)

You will see federal legislation passed in the next four years which contains a passage which says that its Constitutionality cannot be challenged in a Court. That law will be declared Unconstitutional by a Court. This will set the stage for what I would call the "big one." Once all of these amendments have been passed the amendment machine will be geared up to make significant changes to the way that government works. That change will entail limiting the power of the Courts as a check upon the Legislature and the Executive. I think thats where the vector points. I'm not going to say anything else about that. I don't think that anyone will propose it for several years. We'll talk about it then.

Democrats:

Its over. The Democrats have to significantly reformulate. I haven't figured out how I think they'll do it. One word I heard on CNN last night about what Blues are likely to feel in the face of this was alienation.

On a personal note, I'm not impressed with the widespread support for the Gay Marriage ban amendments. Are we really saying that America hates fags? Why is this a central goal for religious people? Why do Christians focus on homosexuals, as opposed to, say, feeding the poor, or peace, or other things that Jesus was concerned with? Why do we care about this in particular? What does it say about who we are? What does it communicate about the values that are important to us?

Bush wins

Speaking as someone who voted for Bush, I have to say this though: I don't hate Kerry. If he's elected, I will support him as President. I can't speak for everyone who's voted for Bush, but I know some who have, and I think they feel the same. We vote our conscience, but if the candidate that we choose isn't elected, that doesn't mean that we hate them or despise their decisions.

[ I wish i shared your optimism. And I hope the nation survives the next four years, regardless of who's leading it. There is some incredible shit facing this country, and no easy answers to cram into a soundbite. Real decisions, many of them zero sum, and will have effects for decades.

And no, i'm not kidding, there is a financial crisis coming down the pipe, we're running out of easy access to non-opec oil, and we're still slogging in Iraq to an increasingly undefined goal.

Anyway, if nothing else, i can be glad that the past 4 years have vastly increased my political knowledge and involvement, and i don't see that changing... this has been a transformative period for me, and hopefully for many of my peers, and I think the next four will be even more active. -k]

RE: Election Eve 2004

] The first wave of exit-poll data reaching my desk comes
] from a variety of sources. In some states the sources
] disagree about the specific margin by which a candidate
] leads, but never about which candidate is out in front.
] Some of the confusion may stem from the mixing of morning
] exit-poll numbers with early afternoon numbers. With
] those provisos and the understanding that the early
] numbers are predictive of nothing without their
] accompanying computer model, here's what I've heard:

Slate is leaking exit poll data.

[ Don't forget the extra large grain of salt. Exit polls are notoriously shady. -k]

Early Exit - A squeaker!

[ Not new, but interesting and thorough. -k]

Chaum's secure voting proposal