] Important Senate news today. Several new polls there have
] changed the outlook. Just going by the spreadsheet (i.e.,
] the current poll numbers), the Senate will be split 50-50
] as a result of a new poll in Oklahoma that now puts Brad
] Carson ahead of Tom Coburn (the former obstretrician who
] has admitted to performing abortions but now says
] abortionists should be executed). In addition, the
] spreadsheet says the Republicans will win the Louisiana
] seat, but since no Republican has ever been elected to
] the Senate by the people of Louisiana since direct
] elections of senators began in 1914, my best guess at
] this point is that the Democrats will actually have a
] majority in the Senate (counting Jeffords as a Democrat).
] This scenario was unthinkable 6 months ago.

This is the slickest electoral college map site.

[ It's good, *BUT* to date, his methodology involves recoloring the map based only on the most recent poll *NOT* on an average of polls over the most recent sample cycle. This is ok, but recognize that it makes the map *much* more volatile. If you want a quick glance, that's somewhat more representative of general trends and likelihoods, check Slate's Election Scorecard.

Today's update indicates that he might add code to produce a similar map, which averages and accounts for trends, for monday. Perhaps a little late in the game, but, whatever, it's a free service and it's really well done, as long as it's read with knowledge of it's limitations.

This one is more for if you want to read, or if you want the state by state graphs, which are excellent. -k]

Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004