] At current rates of production, there were 40.6 years of
] consumption covered by proven reserves in 2002, the latest
] data available, according to the Wall Street Journal.
]
] The newspaper, citing the BP Statistical Review, said
] that in 1989, there were 44.7 years left of consumption.
]
] "[A shortage] will probably happen in the next 10 to 20
] years," Professor David Goodstein, a physicist at the
] California Institute of Technology, told CNNfn.

hrm...

[ I take it that your 'hrm' means you're skeptical that in 2 years we've gone from an estimate of 40 years down to 20 or even 10. And that in the 13 prior to that, we effectively gained 9. I think it's hard to speak to that, not knowing how any of these analyses were conducted.

Given my leanings, I would feel better trusting cal tech over those others, but the discrepancy *is* large, and demands further investigation.

Clearly BP wasn't accounting for some large fields that were found in the following 13 years. Will we find the same amount in the next 13?

As hijexx implied though, even 40 years isn't *that* long, and we're surely going to reach a point where we've gotten all we can at some point between now and then. Also, those numbers may account for all the oil we have, but the shit's gonna hit the fan some number of years before actual supply runs out, as everyone scrambles to eke out as much cash as they can. So, I'd take 40 and knock off 10 (20?) years for the "this is when costs start skyrocketing and the bad shit really starts" date. That's 2032 (22?). Add a sprinkle of new industrialization and toss with ongoing war in the middle east (as is possible) and i think that number goes down further.

That being said, perhaps the CalTech prof and others like him are taking a page from the Y2K situation. Deliberately overstate the potential problem, long before you have to, and scare people into getting it done *actually* in time.

Either way, as I commented earler, i think the short term answer stays the same... use less energy, work towards *viable* alternate sources.

If we find a cheaper way to get energy *before* the time's up on oil, so much the better. -k]

As prices rise, concerns grow about world oil supplies