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Topic: Economics |
5:40 pm EDT, May 8, 2002 |
Billions were wasted in frenzy to build networks, 90% of which lie dormant More than 18 months into the telecom downturn, experts are still divided over the depth of the bandwidth glut. But there's little disagreement about the money wasted ... About $70 billion was squandered over the past five years ... Much of the fiber may never be used. Another view is that it's not a glut of fiber, so much as it is a glut of utility companies. On some routes as many as 10 to 15 companies have built backbones. "Denver to Chicago has 800 fibers." [Roughly speaking, this is enough capacity to transfer the contents of the entire public World Wide Web between the two cities in about one minute.] Much of the money wasted wasn't in fiber, but in construction crews, engineers, executives, buildings and everything else ... What is the future for an industry that has wasted tens of billions of dollars and can't repay its debt? Experts agree the most likely scenario is continued consolidation until there are only a few players remaining in the long-haul market. The question is whether there will be enough demand, soon enough. Fiber-optic fallout |
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Hit Video Games Overshadow Company's Woes |
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Topic: Economics |
6:38 am EDT, May 6, 2002 |
Can looting, drive-by-shootings, random beatings, prostitution and drug dealing compensate for accounting irregularities? Maybe -- if the mayhem has really great graphics. The success of Grand Theft Auto 3 (the top-selling game in February for the fourth month in a row) has buoyed the fortunes of a company with its own real-world troubles. Other hits: Max Payne and State of Emergency. The company is under SEC investigation; unclear whether the hits can continue ... irregularities in reporting results. Since the third version [of GTA] was released in in October, however, industry analysts estimate that 5 million to 6 million copies have been sold, with the worldwide total growing an additional 50,000 to 60,000 each week. "The company could barely keep its lights on, and then boom they release this game." Its fans say that the attraction is not the violence, but the many different role-playing situations the game offers, and the fact that players have great amounts of freedom. For instance, players are free to steal cars at will, and beat up passers-by with bats or shoot them. Players also can pick up prostitutes and have sex with them in a car; the players can then kill the prostitute and steal any money from her bleeding corpse. "It is, quite simply, an incredible experience that shouldn't be missed by anyone mature enough to handle it." Hit Video Games Overshadow Company's Woes |
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Hanging on a line | Economist |
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Topic: Economics |
1:56 pm EDT, May 4, 2002 |
Telecoms companies are having a hellish time. Not only is overcapacity and debt weighing on profits, but competition regulations are preventing a natural consolidation of the industry. Unfortunately, things are likely to get worse before they get better. Another week, another crop of bad news from the telecoms industry: WorldCom, Qwest, Siemens, Marconi, JDS, Telewest, NTL ... Analyst: "No bottom in sight." There is evidence of bigger structural problems in the industry that will not be solved by an economic recovery. That suggests the industry must undergo painful rationalisation before things start to improve. How did this happen? Bets have gone spectacularly wrong. In fixed-line telecoms, the problem is overcapacity. Bankruptcies and mergers would appear to be the solution. But bankruptcies do little to solve the problem of overcapacity. ... Telecoms firms bet everything on a surge in demand that has so far failed to materialise. Backing out of these bets is proving to be very unpleasant. The carnage will continue for some time yet. Hanging on a line | Economist |
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Topic: Economics |
10:17 pm EDT, May 2, 2002 |
In a Technology Special Report, BusinessWeek Online offers up an array of new articles on the dismal state of the telecom industry. Here are the titles of a few: It's "Merge, Buy, or Die" in Telecom How Connected Are the Baby Bells? Time to Size Up Telecom Stocks Redialing Internet Telephony Woe Is WorldCom Has Nokia Run Out of Rocket Fuel? Telecom's New Shape |
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Getting past the telecom mess |
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Topic: Economics |
6:31 am EDT, May 2, 2002 |
The war is over. Goliath beat David, and now the citizens are faced with continued tyranny. CLECs were supposed to reinvigorate the telecommunications market. Ah, cruel reality. The promise of CLEC-driven telco nirvana now lies in the economic scrap heap. Except for a few healthy CLECs, the white knights have disappeared. Companies [may choose to] take matters into their own hands. Sounds like another step in the direction of "asset-based telecom", as described in the Cook Report. Canada is ahead of the US in this department, so look there for early signs. Getting past the telecom mess |
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Fiber-Optic Overdose Racks Up Casualties |
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Topic: Economics |
6:21 am EDT, May 2, 2002 |
This ought to be a glorious moment for the telecommunications industry. Instead, the industry is in the midst of a financial meltdown. The ripples from the telecom implosion extend well beyond the industry. In the boom years, there seemed no limit to telecom's prospects. In desperation, companies began to try to "buy" market share. For a time, companies were able to camouflage their problems. Telecom wouldn't be the first to go through such a boom-and-bust cycle. In the 1880's, the entire railroad industry went bankrupt. Fiber-Optic Overdose Racks Up Casualties |
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Only Some Will Survive the Telecom Shakeout |
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Topic: Economics |
8:22 pm EDT, May 1, 2002 |
How do you tell the difference between the companies that are going to survive the shakeout among telecommunications service providers and those that will go belly-up? Every CEO running a phone company has studied the problem. When some number of customers stops buying, a company's remaining customers often come looking for discounts. It's exactly this double whammy of falling demand and falling prices that has hit telecommunications providers. ... Verizon will survive; Qwest is a definite maybe; WorldCom is on the ropes. ... Falling prices: $3,000 for an OC-3. A little over $12,000 for an OC-48. And dropping fast. I read an article earlier this week that mentioned a price of $2,000 for an OC-3. Cheap, cheap, cheap! It wasn't too long ago that all you could get for ~ $2k was a T-1. Only Some Will Survive the Telecom Shakeout |
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Topic: Economics |
8:50 am EDT, Apr 30, 2002 |
Bernard J. Ebbers, who built WorldCom Inc. into a global telecommunications giant but then saw its fortunes and stock price crumble amid fierce industry competition and questions about the company's finances, has resigned as chief executive and president. WorldCom's stock has lost 80% of its value this year, and fell nearly 30% on Monday alone. Investors fret that the prospects may be strong for default on its $30B debt. Is Bernie Ebbers running away, or only walking? The answer may tell us how much time WorldCom has left. WorldCom CEO Resigns |
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Technologists Question I.B.M. Move | John Markoff in NYT |
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Topic: Economics |
4:19 pm EDT, Apr 29, 2002 |
There are people who believe Silicon Valley is a misnomer. ... Iron Ferrite Valley would be a more appropriate name, although the case has been harder to make since IBM decided to sell its business in magnetic disk data storage to Hitachi. A half-century ago, IBM began research that would lead to the first disk drive. Almaden Research Center has long been considered one of IBM's crown jewels ... Now, part of it will become a joint venture to be 70% owned by Hitachi. So there was some quiet grumbling ... as many technologists wondered whether the computer maker was not mortgaging its future. Does IBM actually have a grand strategy in data storage [or is it about improving the short-term bottom line]? It may take a peculiar kind of company to stay alive in [the rapidly consolidating storage industry.] The technology is changing even faster. Execution of each new generation of technology has to be flawless or else market share can collapse overnight. For decades, critics have been predicting the imminent obsolescence of hard-disk drives. IBM may have finally decided that the writing is indeed on the wall. Garnter: "IBM is abdicating the next 10 years and betting on the future." If he's right, IBM might be telegraphing a new data storage world that will open vistas even more remarkable than an Iron Ferrite Valley. Technologists Question I.B.M. Move | John Markoff in NYT |
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Long Distance May Face a Very Short Future |
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Topic: Economics |
5:48 pm EDT, Apr 27, 2002 |
As long-distance companies watch their calls and profits slip away to rivals such as cellular phone networks, the day may soon come when their business -- once considered a pillar of American enterprise -- ceases to exist. WorldCom 1Q profit plunged 78%. ... call volume fell significantly, but revenue dropped even faster. Analyst: "At the end of the day, they're pretty much doomed. Long distance will be a memory." Long Distance May Face a Very Short Future |
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