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compos mentis. Concision. Media. Clarity. Memes. Context. Melange. Confluence. Mishmash. Conflation. Mellifluous. Conviviality. Miscellany. Confelicity. Milieu. Cogent. Minty. Concoction.

AT&T Falls to '85 Level on Sector Slump
Topic: Economics 6:04 am EDT, Apr 12, 2002

AT&T's stock plunged to its lowest level since 1985, dragged by weakness across the telecommunications and cable television sectors, and by investor displeasure with its proposed reverse stock split, a move never before pursued by a Dow industrials firm, analysts said.

Shares dropped 8% to lowest level in 17 years; down 34% in the last 10 months.

"AT&T's getting hit from all sides -- the cable guys are down, the telecoms have been down and they're going lower." ...

"Given the problems in the telecom sector with carriers with a lot of debt, and given the off-balance sheet issues at Adelphia, I think investors may be concerned about cable stocks that have high debt levels. And Comcast, after the merger with AT&T Broadband, will have a huge amount of debt."

Most of AT&T's stock price reflects the value of the cable television business, rather than its shrinking telephone operations. ...

"[The reverse stock split] is like shuffling the deck chairs on the Titanic."

AT&T Falls to '85 Level on Sector Slump


Lucent to Cut Additional 5,000 Jobs by End of June
Topic: Economics 6:00 am EDT, Apr 12, 2002

Lucent plans to cut about 5,000 more jobs than previously expected by the end of June because of the slowdown in the telecom sector.

"It's a lot of little snips ..."

Lucent's stock was down ~3.5% to an all-time low. Down 71% on the year. There are signs the struggling telecom spending market has not shown signs of beginning a long-awaited rebound.

Expectations are already rock bottom for Lucent and its competitors ...

Lucent to Cut Additional 5,000 Jobs by End of June


AOL Time Warner Stock Hits Post-Merger Low
Topic: Economics 5:55 am EDT, Apr 12, 2002

In two days, AOLTW's stock has plunged 10% to reach a four year low, as investors have grown concerned about the company's balance sheet, turmoil in its Internet unit and stock sales by a big shareholder.

"I don't think anyone would have thought that the stock would go down this far. The price is declining with accelerated volume, which reflects panic selling."

The old AOL and Time Warner each financed their growth through intricate partnerships, including ones with Bertelsmann for AOL Europe, with a publicly traded affiliate for AOL Latin America, and with AT&T and with a group controlled by the Newhouse family for various cable systems. Most of those deals are in various stages of restructuring, adding uncertainty.

"Basically, this is about trust."

AOL Time Warner Stock Hits Post-Merger Low


Fiber Optic Cables Abound, but What Price to Pay?
Topic: Economics 9:23 am EDT, Apr 11, 2002

For years, the telecommunications industry credo [was] "Build it, and they will come."

Now, with hundreds of thousands of miles worth of fiber optic cable lying in U.S. bankruptcy court -- and potentially thousands more on the way -- the question is: What to pay for potentially valuable capacity that may not show a meaningful return for many years?

"At the end of the day, very few of those bidders can afford not to have these assets generating free cash flow relatively soon."

There remains some question whether such carriers need Global Crossing's assets at all.

"Most of Global Crossing is redundant to other networks -- everyone has transatlantic capacity -- so a lot of it has zero value."

Fiber Optic Cables Abound, but What Price to Pay?


AT&T, Hardly a Penny Stock, Plans 1-for-5 Reverse Stock Split
Topic: Economics 9:12 am EDT, Apr 11, 2002

Is it conceivable that shares of AT&T might trade for less than $5?

Not to AT&T's board apparently. In an SEC filing, AT&T said it planned to ask shareholders to approve a 1-for-5 reverse stock split. The move is being proposed for its supposed psychological effect on investors. At AT&T's current stock price, the company's shares would trade for about $4.30 after AT&T completes its deal to sell its cable television business to Comcast for $47 billion in stock. With the reverse split, the number of shares outstanding would be reduced, lifting the price for each remaining share to more than $20.

AT&T is now resorting to mind games ... This can't be a good sign.

AT&T, Hardly a Penny Stock, Plans 1-for-5 Reverse Stock Split


Cisco Concerns Fray European Telecoms Nerves
Topic: Economics 9:10 am EDT, Apr 11, 2002

Nokia led a drop in Euro techs on Wednesday as investors were rattled by talk that Cisco would miss earnings forecasts.

Bad news from Cisco would dash any hopes of an imminent market recovery ... As Nokia and Alcatel fell, Vodafone was hit hit by comments from NTT DoCoMo that growth in Japan was slowing.

DoCoMo expects to sign up 30% fewer new subscribers this FY ... "The market is nervous because wireless data seems to get further and further away with every month. We are mildly concerned that as wireless data moves further out, then the battleground between operators could move to the voice market."

Telecoms shares have plunged since March 2000 as a global economic slowdown has been compounded by over-capacity and concerns about delays in new technologies, forcing telecoms companies to slash investments and jobs as debts and losses rise.

Cisco fell 8% overnight; Nokia, 4%; Alcatel, 2%; Vodaphone, down 3% to a 4 year low; WorldCom, down nearly 12% on Wednesday alone -- it's down 70% in 2002; Lucent shares fell 4% to an all-time low.

Analyst: "From the suppliers to the purchasers of equipment, no one's got any capital. There's just major companies on the order of Lucent, and Nortel and Qwest and WorldCom -- just the utter financial devastation is just astounding. It's like someone dropped a bomb."

Cisco Concerns Fray European Telecoms Nerves


Secret List of Potential Suitors for Global Crossing Exposed
Topic: Economics 6:21 am EDT, Apr 10, 2002

While more than 50 companies have expressed confidential interest in acquiring Global Crossing, their identities are no longer secret to one another, courtesy of an e-mail message from Global Crossing's lawyers. ... Bidders include Verizon, BT, Deutsche Telekom, Telefónica of Spain, Teléfonos de Mexico, CSFB, Bank One, Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, Quadrangle Group, the Carlyle Group, Bertelsmann, a British utility firm, ...

Secret List of Potential Suitors for Global Crossing Exposed


Telecoms Stocks Fall as Hopes Dashed
Topic: Economics 6:17 am EDT, Apr 10, 2002

The hard hit telecom sector took another battering on Tuesday as Verizon ... warned there would be no growth in revenues ... [From Bloomberg, Reuters: What's more, Verizon said it doesn't expect improvement in revenue growth in the near term. It wasn't more specific.] ... Analysts warned investors to brace themselves for more bad news.

"First quarter results are expected to remain depressed across all companies in the telecom sector." SoundView lowered earnings estimates for BellSouth, citing Argentina and Venezuela; stock loses 7% to hit 4 year low. ... Verizon will take a $2.5B charge and does not expect growth; stock down 3%. WorldCom promises to cut capex but still loses over 10%. SBC loses 4.5%, Sprint 3%, Quest 3%, Vodafone 3.5%, Nokia and Alcatel down. BT will cut 18,000 jobs and promises to find a way to pay off $14B in debt. Nortel maxes out its credit line for another $1.9B after banks decline to increase its limit; stock is down 51% this year. Analyst: "Nortel has sufficient resources to survive the downturn; the odds of a Nortel bankruptcy are less than 10%." ...

The telecoms sector continued to get slammed as investors worry that the slowdown may have more to do with industry fundamentals than with the economy. ... "People were thinking that the slowdown in the revenues and the lines were recession-related. (But) upon closer [inspection], they're starting to focus in on the likely secular declines in the revenue growth coming out of the basic local services companies. It really shouldn't come as a big surprise. The basic telecommunications service companies are facing some very challenging fundamentals."

Telecoms Stocks Fall as Hopes Dashed


Exploiting Synergy Between Ontologies and Recommender Systems [PDF]
Topic: Technology 11:29 pm EDT, Apr  9, 2002

Abstract: Recommender systems learn about user preferences over time, automatically finding things of similar interest. This reduces the burden of creating explicit queries. Recommender systems do, however, suffer from cold-start problems where no initial information is available early on upon which to base recommendations. Semantic knowledge structures, such as ontologies, can provide valuable domain knowledge and user information. However, acquiring such knowledge and keeping it up to date is not a trivial task and user interests are particularly difficult to acquire and maintain. This paper investigates the synergy between a web-based research paper recommender system and an ontology containing information automatically extracted from departmental databases available on the web. The ontology is used to address the recommender systems cold-start problem. The recommender system addresses the ontology's interest-acquisition problem. An empirical evaluation of this approach is conducted and the performance of the integrated systems measured.

Exploiting Synergy Between Ontologies and Recommender Systems [PDF]


Supporting community and building social capital
Topic: Technology 5:50 am EDT, Apr  9, 2002

(Subscription required -- or visit your local newsstand)

Communications of the ACM
Volume 45, Issue 4 (April 2002)

Excerpts from the TOC:

Teaching the Nintendo generation to program
Hijacking the web
Anonymity on the Internet: why the price may be too high
Social Translucence
visualizing online conversations
Tools for navigating large social cyberspaces
Audience-specific online community design

Social networks such as communities are sustained by social capital, and the need for social capital is evident ... Communications tools build and strengthen social capital, and technology professionals must develop a comprehensive strategy in order to enhance and improve the effectiveness of such media. They must focus on developing inexpensive hardware, software, and infrastructure that is available to anyone regardless of social strata, income, and educational level. The challenges inherent in doing this include creating highly accessible technologies and making sure that the software supports online social interaction. Community leaders and moderators must also contribute if trust -- the foundation of any social network -- is to be engendered. A key component of generating trust is developing a system that can measure community members' presence and past interactions. Justifying the creation of online communities requires a wide-ranging solution for determining their development costs and advantages, while insight into social interactions and the concept of technology as a mediator will aid in their development. A successful online community must be built upon existing technology that can increase its power and be universally available.

Supporting community and building social capital


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