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compos mentis. Concision. Media. Clarity. Memes. Context. Melange. Confluence. Mishmash. Conflation. Mellifluous. Conviviality. Miscellany. Confelicity. Milieu. Cogent. Minty. Concoction.

The Iraqi Maze: Searching for a Way Out [PDF]
Topic: Current Events 7:54 pm EDT, May 19, 2002

Over a decade after the end of the 1990-91 Gulf War, the challenge to international security posed by Iraqi efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction (WMD) remains unresolved. Following the war, the UN Security Council imposed an extraordinary set of constraints and obligations on Iraq to ensure that it does not possess WMD and long-range missiles for their delivery. Now, however, these constraints and obligations are in a state of disarray.

With no inspections since December 1998, the status of Iraqi WMD programs grows increasingly uncertain. Analysts have been particularly concerned about the nuclear program; concerns of the threat posed by an Iraqi biological weapons program are also growing.

Preventing Iraq from possessing WMD must remain a preeminent goal of the UN Security Council. The fear of Iraqi nuclear weapons is almost certainly leading Iran, for example, to accelerate its own nuclear weapons efforts.

This article analyzes the current status of international sanctions and obligations imposed on Iraq, and assesses proposals aimed at addressing the deadlock.

Although this article was written and published prior to the recent changes in the sanctions regime, the general notion of "smart sanctions" is addressed.

The Iraqi Maze: Searching for a Way Out [PDF]


Clone-spotting [Flash]
Topic: Humor 6:46 pm EDT, May 19, 2002

Fans of Star Wars, meet my good friends politics and capitalism. Requires Flash.

Clone-spotting [Flash]


NATO: An Alliance With a Future
Topic: Society 3:34 pm EDT, May 19, 2002

A long time ago, when I was part of the opposition to Communist dictatorship, I thought that if the Iron Curtain ever fell, communism collapsed and the Warsaw Pact was dissolved, NATO would also lose its raison d'etre as a principal tool of the policy of "containment."

But once the Iron Curtain did indeed begin to fall, and I entered practical politics, I soon realized how naive I had been and how important was NATO's continued existence.

In today's Washington Post, Vaclav Havel, the president of the Czech Republic, defends the growth and sustainment of NATO for a future fraught with unpredictible enemies and complex global relationships among nations.

NATO: An Alliance With a Future


Pentagon's Worry: Iraqi Chemical Arms
Topic: Current Events 9:03 am EDT, May 19, 2002

As the Pentagon prepares for a possible invasion of Iraq, military planners say the most complicated problem they face is the chance that President Saddam Hussein might use chemical or biological weapons against American forces and their allies.

Military analysts count the ways to restrain Iraq during the beat-down.

It is a task of limiting damage, rather than preventing any response. But I think the analysts are missing something; Iraq will release these weapons, even if it means only local delivery within Iraqi borders. How long will these chemical and biological agents remain potent, once released? A land that is wholly unfit for living could become a lawless haven for the likes of bin Laden. The probability would be low that the US could establish an interim Iraqi government promptly, because the entire region might have to be evacuated for years. Where will we set up the refugee camps for 23 million Iraqis, if Saddam is allowed to use his weapons to make his country uninhabitable?

Pentagon's Worry: Iraqi Chemical Arms


U.S. Intercepting Messages Hinting at a New Attack
Topic: Current Events 8:44 am EDT, May 19, 2002

American intelligence agencies have intercepted a vague yet troubling series of communications among Al Qaeda operatives over the last few months indicating that the terrorist organization is trying to carry out an operation as big as the September 11 attacks or bigger.

CYA. No one wants to appear caught off-guard, so they leak "news" like this even though it enables little in the way of an actionable response.

Much like "Intel cuts prices, increases clock rates", this is not news precisely because it is happening all the time.

Why don't we see stories like this: "The FBI has intercepted a vague yet troubling series of communications among mobsters indicating that the organization is trying to pull off a financial scam as big as Enron or bigger."

What might be news? If we were listening and watching closely, but heard nothing at all.

U.S. Intercepting Messages Hinting at a New Attack


New bin Laden film vows revenge
Topic: Current Events 8:35 am EDT, May 19, 2002

An encrypted video containing previously unseen footage of Osama bin Laden singling out Britain as a terrorist target has been obtained by The Sunday Times. The film includes an interview recorded after the start of the West's offensive in Afghanistan.

Those who provided the video to the newspaper claim it was made in March, indicating that bin Laden is still alive and plotting against the US, UK, and others.

(Free registration required; login: cypherpunks, password: cypherpunks)

New bin Laden film vows revenge


O'Reilly Emerging Technologies 2002 [Audio]
Topic: High Tech Developments 12:02 am EDT, May 19, 2002

TechNetCast is making available the audio tracks for the keynote speeches given at the recent O'Reilly Emerging Technology Conference. As I log this URL, only four are available, but the rest of them are promised within days. (Hopefully that will include Steven Johnson ...)

The keynotes include:

Rethinking The Modern Operating System, by Richard Rashid, Microsoft.
Fixing Network Security by Hacking the Business Climate, by Bruce Schneier.
Autonomic Computing, by Robert Morris, IBM.
The Shape of Things to Come, by Tim O'Reilly.

O'Reilly Emerging Technologies 2002 [Audio]


'The Reckoning': Iraq and the Thief of Baghdad
Topic: Society 9:32 am EDT, May 18, 2002

Were we to pick up where we left off a decade ago and head to Baghdad, the tormented people of Iraq would be sure to erupt in joy. If we liberate them, they may (if only for a while) forgive America the multitude of its sins. They may take our gift and do the easiest of things: construct a better Iraq.

In this article, JHU professor Fouad Ajami reviews Sandra Mackey's new book on the modern history of Iraq. He decides that Mackey has injected too much of her personal political views into the story, and that as a result her message is "muddled." Nevertheless, this book review provides some good background for understanding our current dilemma.

'The Reckoning': Iraq and the Thief of Baghdad


Things looking up for telecom in Asia
Topic: Economics 9:21 am EDT, May 18, 2002

Gartner Dataquest says the data services of Asian telecoms are poised for explosive growth. They recommend looking to China for the most promising telecom opportunities. Meanwhile, they say the US telecom industry is not in danger of collapsing and that the worst declines are over. Such a statement is likely to confuse people ... it is obvious, for example, that the "worst" is over at WorldCom, percentage-wise, because the stock is down 98%. But that last 2% will be particularly rough for the employees, bondholders, and shareholders ...

Things looking up for telecom in Asia


New Questions Surfacing in Inquiry Into Adelphia
Topic: Economics 9:09 am EDT, May 18, 2002

Investigations into accounting problems at Adelphia Communications are turning up a far broader number of questionable transactions between the company and its controlling family than had been apparent at first, an executive close to the situation said yesterday.

Financial intrigue at Adelphia over deals for hockey teams, golf courses, and more. The execs are taking this seriously -- they've brought David Boies onto their legal team. But no one is going to buy them or bail them out. The firm will soon be delisted, and from there the bankruptcy filing is only a matter of time.

New Questions Surfacing in Inquiry Into Adelphia


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