Maybe it is a way to tame a fearsome subject by Hollywoodizing it, or maybe it is a way to drive home the dreadful stakes in the arid-sounding business of nonproliferation, but in several weeks of talking to specialists here and in Russia about the threats an amateur evildoer might pose to the homeland, I found an unnerving abundance of such morbid creativity.

From the Sunday NYT Magazine. Here's the table of contents:

Not If But When
25,000 Warheads, and It Only Takes One
The Garage Bomb
Weapons of Mass Disruption
The Peril of Power Plants
Being Afraid

Nuclear Nightmares

... "Disseminating any information in favor of negotiations with America is considered a crime. Protecting our national interests at sensitive junctures is a duty for all Muslim citizens. Publishing materials contrary to top-level decisions will disturb public opinion and weaken the Islamic system."

Iran Papers Warned Not to Promote U.S. Ties

You don't have to be a cynic to believe that the point of the warnings is not to save lives so much as political hides.

Thanks for the Heads-Up

If the CIA is only semi-competent at spying, the FBI is positively awful. The bureau is a police organization, at bottom. It's good at tailing people; it's good at piecing together forensic evidence. It's good (sometimes) at running down leads. It's not so good at running agents, except in the movies.

For Spying, Bush Needs Friends

There is no evidence that there is a clear successor who is any better, and there are significant risks that Iraq may wind up with a more hostile, activist regime.

Military Bids to Postpone Iraq Invasion

"It is not simply a matter of a bad organization. The FBI is a law-enforcement agency, not an intelligence outfit."

Thank you, thank you, thank you. I have been waiting for months to see these words in print. If the American people want an internal security bureau, let them have it, but don't let this duct-tape and chewing gum approach to crisis management destroy the FBI in the process.

Spying at Home

This article analyzes the current status of international sanctions and obligations imposed on Iraq, and assesses proposals aimed at addressing the deadlock.

Although this article was written and published prior to the recent changes in the sanctions regime, the general notion of "smart sanctions" is addressed.

The Iraqi Maze: Searching for a Way Out [PDF]

As the Pentagon prepares for a possible invasion of Iraq, military planners say the most complicated problem they face is the chance that President Saddam Hussein might use chemical or biological weapons against American forces and their allies.

Military analysts count the ways to restrain Iraq during the beat-down.

It is a task of limiting damage, rather than preventing any response. But I think the analysts are missing something; Iraq will release these weapons, even if it means only local delivery within Iraqi borders. How long will these chemical and biological agents remain potent, once released? A land that is wholly unfit for living could become a lawless haven for the likes of bin Laden. The probability would be low that the US could establish an interim Iraqi government promptly, because the entire region might have to be evacuated for years. Where will we set up the refugee camps for 23 million Iraqis, if Saddam is allowed to use his weapons to make his country uninhabitable?

Pentagon's Worry: Iraqi Chemical Arms

American intelligence agencies have intercepted a vague yet troubling series of communications among Al Qaeda operatives over the last few months indicating that the terrorist organization is trying to carry out an operation as big as the September 11 attacks or bigger.

CYA. No one wants to appear caught off-guard, so they leak "news" like this even though it enables little in the way of an actionable response.

Much like "Intel cuts prices, increases clock rates", this is not news precisely because it is happening all the time.

Why don't we see stories like this: "The FBI has intercepted a vague yet troubling series of communications among mobsters indicating that the organization is trying to pull off a financial scam as big as Enron or bigger."

What might be news? If we were listening and watching closely, but heard nothing at all.

U.S. Intercepting Messages Hinting at a New Attack

An encrypted video containing previously unseen footage of Osama bin Laden singling out Britain as a terrorist target has been obtained by The Sunday Times. The film includes an interview recorded after the start of the West's offensive in Afghanistan.

Those who provided the video to the newspaper claim it was made in March, indicating that bin Laden is still alive and plotting against the US, UK, and others.

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New bin Laden film vows revenge