"Even among Sunni Muslim extremists and committed terrorists, including Zarqawi and Al Qaeda, there can be extreme discrepancies about strategy and tactics," one senior official said. "This is not a world of homogeneous bad guys."

If you don’t mind my sayin', I can see you're out of aces.

If you're gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.

You got to know when to hold 'em, know when to fold 'em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.

Ev'ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin'
Is knowin' what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
'cause ev'ry hand's a winner and ev'ry hand's a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep.

Today's Wisdom: Even a madman can learn a thing or two from a cowboy.

Al Qaeda Rebuffs Iraqi Terror Group

The increased US and Pakistani activity [are] the first signs of the "spring offensive" planned against Al-Qaida leaders, which has fueled greater optimism in Washington that Osama bin Laden, Ayman al-Zawahiri, and Mullah Mohammad Omar will be captured or killed in the coming months.

It begins.

Despite the rising temperature, somehow I doubt that Nelly is playing on bin Laden's stereo.

Pakistan Turns Up the Heat

The US strategy, then, is geared toward maintaining the fiction of a "united" Afghanistan, without providing any troops to enforce central rule. The strategy is not exactly brilliant, but -- considering Afghanistan's history and geography -- it is probably one of the few that could work.

Pakistan is the subject of the latest (February 13) sample article from Stratfor. Read it now, as it will be replaced soon.

Pakistan Braces for the American Storm | Stratfor Weekly

In the February 9 issue of Newsweek, Fareed Zakaria argues that the UN's HUMINT was "far more accurate, it turned out, than billions of dollars of satellites."

"We will not hesitate to discredit you," Cheney said to Blix before he began his job.

The lesson here is not that force should never have been used. The real lesson is that international bodies like El Baradei's can work.

We Had Good Intel -- The UN's

] LOS ANGELES -- A federal judge has declared
] unconstitutional a portion of the USA Patriot Act that
] bars giving expert advice or assistance to groups
] designated foreign terrorist organizations.

Federal Judge Rules Part of Patriot Act Unconstitutional

The region stretching from Morocco to the border of India had almost no lights.

War of Ideas, Part 6

Pakistani agents arrested seven al Qaeda suspects and confiscated weapons during an early Sunday raid in the southern city of Karachi.

Crackdown! Guess who's been reading his Stratfor lately?

Pakistan Arrests 7 al Qaeda Suspects

In a forceful preview of the Bush administration's expansionist military policies in this election year, Vice President Dick Cheney Wednesday painted a grim picture of what he said was the growing threat of a catastrophic terrorist attack in the United States and warned that the battle, like the Cold War, could last generations.

If a newspaper could have a soundtrack, you might expect to hear a bear growling on a windy, stormy night, with a wolf or two howling from the hills in the distance. Every few minutes, the rumble of an incoming mortar attack. And in between, the uncomfortable silence of the things you can't hear.

Cheney's grim vision: decades of war

What is clear is that al Qaeda is at a crossroads. It does not have really good choices, and therefore, must choose the best of a bad lot.

When PAM reopens in March, the smart money will be on the Pakistan track.

Options for Osama, Peril for Pakistan

Make no mistake: we are living at a remarkable hinge of history and it's not clear how it's going to swing.

The Sunday New York Times offers the second of five parts in Tom Friedman's "War of Ideas" series.

War of Ideas, Part 2