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Current Topic: War on Terrorism

Iraq: New Strategies | Stratfor Weekly
Topic: War on Terrorism 10:38 pm EDT, May 21, 2004

"It is easy to catalogue problems, more difficult to provide solutions." This point is not only absolutely true, but lies at the heart of intelligence.

In a world in which opinions are commonplace, there is a rare value in withholding opinions.

The United States' invasion of Iraq was not a great idea. Its only virtue was that it was the best available idea among a series of even worse ideas.

The essential point is that the invasion of Iraq was not and never should have been thought of as an end in itself.

[Since I am not] an ideologue, the nature of the Iraqi government -- or chaos -- does not affect me.

What does affect me is al Qaeda. Al Qaeda is trying to kill me.

The key to al Qaeda is in Riyadh and in Islamabad.

Sometimes the solution to complex situations is to simplify them.

Iraq: New Strategies | Stratfor Weekly


Tests Confirm Sarin in Iraqi Artillery Shell
Topic: War on Terrorism 9:05 am EDT, May 19, 2004

Tests on an artillery shell that blew up in Iraq on Saturday confirm that it did contain an estimated three or four liters of the deadly nerve agent sarin.

Another shell filled with mustard gas, possibly also part of an IED was discovered on May 2.

Some experts suggested that the two shells, which were unmarked, date back to the first Persian Gulf War.

Tests Confirm Sarin in Iraqi Artillery Shell


The Gray Zone | Seymour Hersh in The New Yorker
Topic: War on Terrorism 2:29 am EDT, May 19, 2004

The roots of the Abu Ghraib prison scandal lie not in the criminal inclinations of a few Army reservists but in a decision, approved last year by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, to expand a highly secret operation, which had been focussed on the hunt for Al Qaeda, to the interrogation of prisoners in Iraq.

Rumsfeld's decision embittered the American intelligence community, damaged the effectiveness of élite combat units, and hurt America’s prospects in the war on terror.

Walking back the cat ...

The Gray Zone | Seymour Hersh in The New Yorker


Leader of Iraq's Governing Council Is Killed
Topic: War on Terrorism 8:33 am EDT, May 17, 2004

A suicide car bombing near an entrance to the coalition headquarters in Baghdad killed the head of the Iraqi Governing Council and three other people today, dealing a further setback to the American effort to stabilize Iraq in advance of a June 30 handover of sovereignty.

"All I could see was a ball of fire rising into the air and there were body parts all around."

"This is our destiny, we're all going to be like that."

Leader of Iraq's Governing Council Is Killed


A Wretched New Picture Of America
Topic: War on Terrorism 1:18 am EDT, May 13, 2004

If you read two newspaper articles this year, read this one twice.

Contrary to my practice, in deference to the outstanding nature of this essay, I have decided not to quote excerpts, due to the risk that doing so may reduce the probability you will follow the link and read it in its entirety.

A Wretched New Picture Of America


The Edge of the Razor
Topic: War on Terrorism 1:14 am EDT, May 13, 2004

The measure of a military force is how honestly errors are addressed and rectified. When a command structure begins denying that self-evident problems are facing them, all is lost.

Remember the objective; respect the enemy; be your own worst critic; exercise leadership at all levels -- these are fundamental principles of warfare. They have all been violated during the Iraq campaign.

From Al Fallujah to An Najaf to Abu Ghraib, the question was whether anyone had the slightest idea what they were trying to achieve in Iraq.

Who is responsible for the failures in Iraq?

The president appears to have assumed that if anyone were fired, it would be admitting that something went wrong. At this point, there is no one who doesn't know that many things have gone wrong. If the president insists on retaining all of his senior staff, Cabinet members and field commanders, no one is going to draw the conclusion that everything is under control; rather they will conclude that it is the president himself who is responsible for the failures, and they will act accordingly.

The Edge of the Razor


The Empire Strikes Out
Topic: War on Terrorism 12:32 pm EDT, May  8, 2004

Officials have found a catalog of "sadistic, blatant and wanton criminal abuses" at the hands of American captors. This horrible scandal represents the most serious crisis for the coalition since the war on terrorism began.

As America finds itself ever more deeply embroiled in Central Asia and Iraq, it need only look at the experience of its coalition partner, Britain, in Afghanistan to learn about the hubris and transience of empire.

"I have seen this country, sacred to the harmony of hallowed solitude, desecrated by the rude intrusion of senseless stranger boors, vile in habits, infamous in vulgar tastes."

"Vainglorious and arrogant, the invaders plunged headlong towards destruction."

Adrift, you might say.

The Empire Strikes Out


Does Iraq Matter?
Topic: War on Terrorism 10:06 am EDT, Apr 25, 2004

I'm a little verklempt. Talk amongst yourselves. I'll give you a topic: John Kerry is to international relations as Nick Carr is to information technology. Discuss.

Iraq policy is now increasingly a response to developments on the ground there and the vagaries of our domestic politics. Ending the Arab-Israel conflict would have far more influence on transforming the Arab world than creating a new Iraqi government.

Knowing what we now know about Iraq, one could make the argument that we would have been better off if we had spent only a fraction of the hundreds of billions our Iraq venture will end up costing us in bribing Arabs and Israelis into a settlement and enforcing it.

The best that can be said with some certainty is that to stay or leave Iraq is going to be messy, costly and engage our energies and public discussion for a long time to come.

Here is the full text of the article by Morton Abramowitz that was mentioned recently.

Does Iraq Matter?


Spanish Leader Orders All 1,300 Troops in Iraq to Withdraw
Topic: War on Terrorism 1:01 pm EDT, Apr 18, 2004

Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero said Sunday he had ordered Spanish troops withdrawn from Iraq as soon as possible.

"I await your next command, able leader," said Zapatero to bin Laden.

Spanish Leader Orders All 1,300 Troops in Iraq to Withdraw


A Different Kind of Intelligence Failure
Topic: War on Terrorism 11:32 am EDT, Apr 17, 2004

Adlai Stevenson writes in the New York Times:

This finger-pointing reflects misconceptions about the nature of intelligence -- and suggests an intelligence failure of a different sort.

If one looks closely enough, there is generally a chance to see what lies ahead.

The failures of the Bush administration are not those of foreign intelligence but of a cerebral sort of intelligence.

A Different Kind of Intelligence Failure


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