The political success of the Spanish bombings will encourage al Qaeda and could lead to further militant attempts to work the fault line ... in an effort to disturb the US alliance. ... Al Qaeda would love to see Bush defeated, particularly if his defeat could be perceived -- particularly in the Islamic world -- as a consequence of the network's actions. Tom wrote: I think that a Democratic president in the US would close the gap with Europe, and thereby eliminate the weakness Al Qaeda is presently exploiting. (Possibly at the expense of creating other weaknesses, but that's an unknown.) Saudi Arabia is never far from the mind of Al Qaeda. A Kerry win in November could pose great dangers for the House of Saud and present new opportunities for Al Qaeda to achieve its original, primary goal. It occurred to me the other day that we never learned the identities of those who attacked Musharraf at the end of 2003. As time goes on, I am increasingly disinclined to believe they were the work of al Qaeda. That attacks took place is undisputed. But were those "near misses" really failures to succeed? Perhaps they were successful failures. Counterattack | Stratfor Weekly | 
