Will AT&T stand alone as a telecommunications company? Many industry executives say they believe that by the middle of next year, a big local phone company like SBC or BellSouth will try to acquire what remains of AT&T. If AT&T's stock price remains [low], such a deal appears almost inevitable. If the AT&T-Comcast deal has, say, an 85% chance of going through, what message is the investment community sending about the rest of AT&T? It appears that investors are valuing the rest of AT&T at just $4.78 a share, or $16.94 billion in all. The implied value of AT&T's core units - (wireline voice and commercial datacom) - is $14B-$22B ... a remarkable figure for assets generating $37B in revenue and $10B in EBITDA this year. ... a strong case can be made that these valuations ... are quite low. Obviously, investors are choosing to disagree with the analysts. [We must wait on the 1Q02 financial report.] AT&T's FY01 10-K will be out today. By the way, it would surprise almost no one in the telecommunications industry if AT&T Wireless ended up being acquired as well. Will Ma Bell Be Taken Over by Offspring? |