Here it is: The single best forecast of oil prices in one month, three months, or a year is -- [sound of drumroll] -- today's oil price.
With oil prices at exorbitant levels, I'm forecasting that next year's price will also be at . . . exorbitant levels. I'm not saying that prices won't change, but I am saying they're about as likely to go up as they are to go down. Let's call this the no-change forecasting rule. It won't work for everything, but it does pretty well for oil prices.
