w1ld wrote:
] ] In its weekly bulletin distributed to 18,000 agencies,
] ] the FBI says to look out for people wearing bulky jackets
] ] on warm days, smelling of chemicals, or even individuals
] ] whose fists are tightly clenched.
] ]
] ] The bulletin also says suicide bombers may disguise
] ] themselves in stolen police uniforms or even as pregnant
] ] women.
]
] Watch out for pregnant women who clench their fists; THEY ARE
] TERRORIST.

"QUAID!"

Big ups to the first person to catch the reference :)

RE: CNN.com - FBI warns of possible suicide attacks - May 20, 2004

Decius wrote:
] ] At current rates of production, there were 40.6 years of
] ] consumption covered by proven reserves in 2002, the latest
] ] data available, according to the Wall Street Journal.
] ]
] ] The newspaper, citing the BP Statistical Review, said
] ] that in 1989, there were 44.7 years left of consumption.
] ]
] ] "[A shortage] will probably happen in the next 10 to 20
] ] years," Professor David Goodstein, a physicist at the
] ] California Institute of Technology, told CNNfn.
]
] hrm...

I know you and Bucy probably think I'm drinking the Kool Aid on this, but I really do think we are facing a pretty damn big problem. The good news out of this is that:

In 1989, they said we had 44.7 years left.
In 2002, they said we had 40.6 years left.

Obviously, there is a 13 year span there, with only a 4 year difference. Obviously predictions are wrong. I agree with that, because you can never know all the variables like technological advances, new finds, etc.

Still, the figure did not stay flat or increase. The next thing that will happen is the drilling of the ANWR. I don't see that as a problem really, because current estimates are that there are between 3.5 billion and 20 billion barrels sitting under there. Environmentally speaking, pipelines that are in place now at Prudhoe field has actually allowed an INCREASE of caribou population, because the pipeline is a safe haven. I sit on the fence on that issue and lean towards exploiting ANWR.

But the constant that I've seen out of all the historical data is that the time is running out. That obviously makes logical sense, there is going to reach a point where we recover everything that makes sense to recover, without delving into negative energy returns. That will occur on the downslope, it's just inevitable.

The thing we have to consider in the short term is how much of a dependency we have on fossil fuel for our energy. The electric grid is 70% fossil fuel based, that's just a fact, and the growth rate for new plants here is tied in at a 90% growth rate right now to fossil fuels. And we all know that transportation is basically 95% or greater tied into fossil fuels. Ultimately the ERORI ratios are what matter. And the fact is that none of the technologies as they exist today will be able to make up the difference in what we will lose in fossil fuels, today.

Will technological advances be able to sustain the current demands? I wish they could, we'll see just how well human ingenuity fares in the face of this. If they can, will they be able to sustain AND meet the current global growth rate of consumption? That's asking for quite a lot of technological advance. And it's asking for it in a world where a critical resource is suspected to be reaching its peak production, with a regional war brewing in the area where most of the reserves of the resource are left.

I ... [ Read More (0.8k in body) ]

RE: As prices rise, concerns grow about world oil supplies

ryan is the supernicety wrote:
] Ryan-- this is really important. I really would like to learn
] more on this. Are there any good studies or academic papers
] anyone knows about? This could be the defining point for our
] generation.

That's an understatement :) There's a good link at the bottom of the article:

http://www.newsgateway.ca/by_topic_peak_oil.htm

And I have to say so far, Heinberg's book "The Party's Over" puts things in quite a sharp focus.

Tom, there's a great chapter in the book about Non-Petroleum Energy Sources. The problem with fuel cells is that they are not energy sources, they are just carriers of energy. That stems from the fact that the process of hydrogen production uses more energy than the hydrogen will yield.

And on ethanol:

"Cornell University professor David Pimentel, who has performed a thorough net-energy analysis of ethanol, found that an acre of corn ultimately yields, on average, 328 gallons of ethanol. It takes 1,000 gallons of fossil fuels to plant, grow, and harvest this quantity of corn. Additional energy must be used in distilling the ethanol. In sum, 131,000 BTU are needed to make 1 gallon of ethanol, which has an energy value of only 77,000 BTU. This gives ethanol an EROEI [Energy Returned On Energy Invested, -ed] of roughly .59, meaning a 41 percent net loss of energy.[0]

A recent USDA study came to a more optimistic conclusion: it claims that ethanol offers a 34 percent energy profit.[1] This translates into an EROEI of 1.34, still hardly an impressive figure when compared to the historic or current EROEI for oil. The practical difference between Pimentel's .59 and the USDA's 1.34 is slight. In either case, if the entire US automotive fleet were to run on pure ethanol, nearly all of the continental US would be required in order to grow the feedstock. There would be no land left over even to house the American population, let alone feed it.

[0] http://unisci.com/stories/20013/0813012.htm
[1] "Study Finds Ethanol Production Energy Efficient," ENS, 2 August 2002

Here's the positive study on ethanol:

http://www.usda.gov/news/releases/2002/08/0322.htm

The reality is somewhere in the middle probably. The math on that puts it at about break even. Once again, back in the same boat as hydrogen, an energy carrier, not an energy source.

I really recommend this book. It's getting my attention and making me think really hard about where we should go from here. I think we should all be particularly worried. The road map you see, I believe the cartographers do not see the cliffs ahead.

RE: Observations and the State of Affairs - Peak Oil

This whole Nick Berg thing is getting stranger by the moment. Some of the best parts are towards the bottom. Pay attention to how everyone mentioned below has a connection to A.N.S.W.E.R http://www.internationalanswer.org/

...

More interesting ties and speculation surrounding Berg.

NICK BERG: STRANGER AND STRANGER - A.N.S.W.E.Rs ANYONE?

This is an issue I've tracked for a couple of years. The voices are growing. It's kind of like when one person says something contrary to popular opinion, you just laugh it off. Then more people start saying, "Hmm, well you know they might be on to something," Those that choose to ignore it will plug their ears as the voices grow.

The truth is, we are going to run out of cheap fossil fuels in our lifetimes. Our way of life is going to change dramatically very soon, within decades. Once oil production peaks, it's all downhill, literally, as we ride the downslope of the bell curve.

This page has a really good collection of starting points and quotes. I'm reading one of the books that is quoted here, "The Party's Over." It's doesn't paint a pretty picture of things to come.

Understanding how oil production affects what we have all come to accept as our way of industrial life, it underscores every war we are going to be fighting in the Middle East from here on out.

I'm curious to know, how many of you think this is even an issue? Is the talk of "peak oil" just Bravo Sierra or is it prophecy? It makes sense to me. I'm not in the camp that thinks it is just going to work itself out, not without readjusting to pre-industrial population size.

Observations and the State of Affairs - Peak Oil

Rattle wrote:
] Government sources told CNN that the encounter involved an
] acquaintance of Zacarias Moussaoui
]
] At one point during the bus ride, Berg said, the man sitting
] next to his son asked if he could use Nick's laptop computer.
]
] "It turned out this guy was a terrorist and that he, you know,
] used my son's e-mail, amongst many other people's e-mail who
] he did the same thing to," Berg said.
]
] Government sources said Berg gave the man his password,
] which was later used by Moussaoui, the sources
] said.
]
] Its a small small world?

Very. But you're a conspiracy theorist to think this was anything more than coincidence. That's why I like to call Ashcroft (who doth protest to much about Berg I think) a coincidence theorist.

RE: CNN.com - Berg's encounter with 'terrorist' revealed - May 13, 2004

LONDON (AP) - The Daily Mirror newspaper published a front-page apology Saturday after photographs purportedly showing British forces abusing Iraqi prisoners turned out to be fake.

"Sorry.. We were hoaxed," read the tabloid's banner headline.

It was accompanied by an editorial that said the paper now believed the pictures were fakes.

"The evidence against them is not strong enough to convict in a court but that is not the burden of proof the Daily Mirror demands of itself," it said. "So to you readers today we apologize for publishing pictures which we now believe were not genuine."

Daily Mirror Apologizes for Phony Photos

Dahan also gave authorities a fake Florida driver's license issued in Plantation, Fla., he said, while Naor produced a fake identification card.

...

Now, if you'll allow me to indulge in speculation, a fire broke out at Oak Ridge's K-25 plant that Saturday afternoon:

http://www.thedailytimes.com/sited/story/html/163303

OAK RIDGE -- A chemical fire broke out Saturday at the East Tennessee Technology Park, forcing an evacuation of residents living within a half mile of the Department of Energy's former K-25 plant.

DOE spokesman Walter Perry said the fire occurred when liquid sodium reacted with water vapor in the air at a recycling operation.

...

DOE's emergency sirens sounded at about 1:10 p.m. to warn area residents of the situation.

...

A fire breaks out at K-25, then two Israeli's are caught later that afternoon with fake ID's and tossing a vial of "fuel source" out the window. Even if this was mere coincidence, I wonder if they will actually be investigated or just silently deported like every other Israeli spy that gets caught here. There have been other times since 9/11 that Israelis were caught in moving trucks under dubious circumstances. Add this to the list.

The enemy is in the gates. Be aware.

...

On September 10, 2001, the Army School of Advanced Military Studies issued a report written by elite US army officers, which was made public just prior to 9/11. The report gave the following description for the Mossad: "Wildcard. Ruthless and cunning. Has capability to target US forces and make it look like a Palestinian/Arab act." [Washington Times, 9/10/01]

Israeli men arrested after high-speed chase in Unicoi County

The Mirror told how the suspect was later driven away from the Army camp, still hooded, and thrown off the back of a moving wagon.

...

The recently exposed torture by some soldiers doesn't appear to be limited to just American coalition members.

PAPER CLAIMS UK TORTURE

Decius wrote:

] In case you haven't seen the stories, the individual on the
] box has been told that if he falls off the box he will be
] electrocuted...

There were some other graphic pictures of someone beaten and left for dead. It's questionable whether the prisoner was already dead.

And I've heard the right wing chime in, about how although wrong, this treatment was not to the same extreme as what Saddam did to his own people or that other nations do to their prisoners. But the point seems to be lost. Americans and American soldiers are supposed to rise above this behavior.

But again, people will continue to believe what they want. This has already been sloughed off as hype and exaggeration by the ones that really need to understand it. They don't see this behavior as treason, which is exactly what it is.

RE: The Abu Ghraib Prison Photos