If Bush wins, Prime Minister Tony Blair does not have to do anything but the silence will be meaningful. Blair's advisers calculate that a win for Bush would vindicate Britain's alliance with the US and will indirectly strengthen Blair's own re-election bid, now anticipated for May next year. A Bush victory also strengthens Blair against left-wingers in his own party - like it or not, they will have to admit that they are facing another four years with Bush in the White House, and there is nobody better than Blair to deal with him.

Blair's reaction to outcomes of the US elections

Between 2000 and the arrival in Iraq of United Nations Monitoring, Inspection and Verification Commission (UNMOVIC) inspectors in November 2002, Iraqi engineers worked on three clandestine programmes to develop long-range ballistic missiles. Details of all three missiles were revealed in the Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq's WMD published on 30 September 2004.

Iraq planned three illegal long-range missiles