Author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning book "Guns, Germs and Steel" (and he's also coincidentally my cousin), Jared has an essay here on the failures of group decision making: ] . . . a sequence of four somewhat fuzzily ] delineated categories. First of all, a group may fail to ] anticipate a problem before the problem actually arrives. ] Secondly, when the problem arrives, the group may fail to ] perceive the problem. Then, after they perceive the ] problem, they may fail even to try to solve the problem. ] Finally, they may try to solve it but may fail in their ] attempts to do so. While all this talking about reasons ] for failure and collapses of society may seem ] pessimistic, the flip side is optimistic: namely, ] successful decision-making. Perhaps if we understand the ] reasons why groups make bad decisions, we can use that ] knowledge as a check list to help groups make good ] decisions. This essay also made Slashdot today. That discussion is here: http://science.slashdot.org/science/03/04/28/1415211.shtml?tid=134 Jared Diamond: Why Do Some Societies Make Disastrous Decisions? |