The idea is not so much to predict the future as to consider the forces that will push the future along different paths, in order to help leaders recognize new possibilities, assess new threats and make decisions that reach much further into the future.

Seeing the Futures

... the much-ballyhooed "orbital space plane" ... [is] the wrong sort of craft ... [and NASA has] shut the door on some of the most innovative current thinking on space technology.

Buzz Aldrin weighs in on the future of NASA.

Fly Me to L 1

The Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania conducted a study in 2000. It found:

Low-income families (less than $30,000 annual income) are less likely to have computers, Internet access or newspaper subscriptions. However, they are equally likely to have a video-game player and their children are more likely to have TV sets in their bedrooms.

Family income is an inverse indicator of media use -- children from high-income families spend the least amount of time with media and children from low-income families spend the most time with media.

Kids are plugged in, parents have tuned out, studies show

] The most powerful country on earth cannot afford to be
] consumed by fear. To make the war on terrorism the
] centerpiece of our national strategy is an abdication of
] our responsibility as the leading nation in the world.
] Moreover, by allowing terrorism to become our principal
] preoccupation, we are playing into the terrorists' hands.
] They are setting our priorities.

I agree with Jeremy. George Soros says so much more in 10 pages then Gore did in 50. If you want an intelligent counterpoint to Bush and the Neocons this is one of the strongest I've seen.

The Bubble of American Supremacy

] So, if in fact we are not at the end of history, then perhaps Tom is
] on to something here.
]
] It's less about the individual governments and more about the
] connections between them, or lack thereof.
]
] Welcome to the Network Society.

Well, this isn't really what I meant. If there is a split here I think it is only because we are behaving in an unwestern way. Unilateral, pre-emptive military action? Imprisoning people without due process? I think we've regressed. It could have been a lot worse, but it also could have been better.

I was arguing that we'll see more positive innovation in the governance of societies as people become better informed and better at critical thinking... This is not the droid I'm looking for. I'm not even sure I'll see what I think will come in my lifetime, but I'm almost positive that I'm right.

The way that things went down... Its not how I would have done it. Its not how a lot of people would have done it. I think we could have gone into Iraq with international support. With financial and military assistance. Had we spun it properly... It would have been better for us on many levels. It would have been cheaper. It would have been safer. It would have been less galvanizing to the radical elements.

I don't think its clear that France took their position to save telecom contracts in Iraq. Thats just as insipid as claiming that we went in to claim oil reserves. I also don't think France thinks its impossible to do this. I simply think that they don't want to bail us out of this mess financially after the way we've behaved.

The message we intended to send is that the United States is not constrained by the international community.

The message we should have sent is that the international community has no need to constrain the United States.

We could have sent that message. Its a shame.

But, yes, we do need to address the grievances of the European community and do so early and often. If we think we don't have to care what they think, then we are eating our own spin. We'd be wrong, and we'll learn that one way or the other.

Democracies do fight wars against each other. Being democratic does not make you nice. Being interconnected makes you interdependent, which makes you nice.

The End of the West?

Foreign Affairs is pleased, therefore, to be able to open a window directly onto occupied Germany seven months after V-E Day, taking readers back in media res.

CFR reaches into the treasure chest for a true gem.

That Was Then: Allen W. Dulles on the Occupation of Germany

What would happen if the 'source code' of our democratic systems was opened up to the people they are meant to serve? An open source model for participatory, bottom-up and emergent policy will force us to confront the issues of our time.

A new essay from Douglas Rushkoff. Download the full text in PDF.

Open Source Democracy

The Rumsfeld "slog" memo, courtesy of The Smoking Gun.

Are we winning or losing the Global War on Terror?

Is DoD changing fast enough to deal with the new 21st century security environment?

Can a big institution change fast enough?

... an alternative might be to try to fashion a new institution ... What else should we be considering?

And so the master plan continues to unfold ...

The Rumsfeld Memo

... Tons of foreign technology is imported, but it's never really internalized ...

Tom Friedman on Arab society in the Sunday New York Times.

Courageous Arab Thinkers

... "Japan and India have managed to blend traditional social structures with modern democracy, and Iraq could do the same." But it will take time and finesse, along with respect for traditions like women wearing the veil. "A key purpose of veiling is to prevent outsiders from competing with a woman's cousins for marriage. Attack veiling, and you are attacking the core of the Middle Eastern social system."

Iraqi Family Ties Complicate American Efforts for Change