swater wrote:

] again. To them it's just the inherent problem of market
] economies, but there's got to be a way around this besides
] cumbersome planned economies. Ideas??

One problem is that the analysts aren't objective. They are too tied into everything. Its more then just the auditors doing the accounting, its the investment banks doing the IPOs. There needs to be more checks and balances in the way the financial system is organized.

I think that one could fund a non profit analyst firm. The guys are simply not allowed to own stocks or do anything but publish, and the publications are free. Like an NPR for detailed market analysis. One way to do this would be through government funding, but then it gets political. If it was totally independant, well funded, and properly staffed, then it might provide a reasonable buffer against instability.

A easier solution would be to fund a buffer organization which simply runs advertisements on financial news programs that present information counter to the grain of the market direction WHATEVER that may be. An organization that is specifically intended to identify and fight market irrationality.

Another thing, which has been discussed here before, is the need for strong economic leadership from the top. The president needs to make people FEEL confident that things are under control and moving forward, and there are things to look forward too and work for. This president is not doing this at all.

However, sometimes you just CAN'T tell whats going to happen. Look at telecom right now.

1. Will wireless eliminate the demand for pots lines?
2. What will drive domestic broadband demand? VoIP, Online Games, a solution to the copyright problem? If any, then when, exactly?
3. Will WiFi or 3G win the coming wireless wars?
4. Will asset based telecom take off? To what extent?
5. If/when 2 happens, how rapidly will the RBOCs shift to an IP based infrastructure? Will Nortel and Lucent be able to translate the IP oriented companies they bought during the boom into products that will meet this demand, or will Cisco or a startup snap up all of this stuff?
6. Will the "stupid net" actually prevail, or will demand for higher quality synchronous communications and better network security lead to something more like ATM? If the later, then how will things evolve in that direction from the existing IP based network? (Will MPLS and RSVP provide similar capability? Will the service providers prefer to give priority to packets based on who sent them rather then on what they contain?)

These are all interesting things to think about. Lots of people seem to have strong opinions, but I don't buy it. It seems like trying to figure out who was going to own the PC market in 2002 by looking at the situation in 1982. We might be able to make some technological predictions, but the social situation, and which companies will do the right things.... thats almost impossible to predict accurately.

RE: Telecommunications layoffs mount worldwide

] In life-sciences establishments around the world, the laboratory
] rat is giving way to the computer mouse—as computing joins forces
] with biology to create a bioinformatics market that is expected to
] be worth nearly $40 billion within three years.

Alot of the interesting computing in the next few years is going to be in this space. Unfortunately for transistor heads like me, they are hiring biologists with computer experience rather than computer people who understand biology. Automation is going to eliminate the need for people who understand how to operate computer systems and networks over the next few years. As a result, all but the very best are likely to have a difficult time finding work. Furthermore, programming languages like Java and Perl make programming more accessible to people with other skill sets. The result may be a labor market which simply isn't interested in uni-discipline professionals.

Bioinformatics - the new Telecom

Will the price of international telephone calls continue to decline? And will more people choose wireless technology over land lines? The answers lie in whether new technologies continue to rival existing ones in the coming year.

This is an interesting article with some great facts in it (like how it took 100 years for the telephone to eclipse the telegraph). But the ultimate theme is that telecom will eat itself.

Web Calling Roils the Telecom World

] "The most truthful saying is the book of Allah and the best
] guidance is that of Mohammed, God bless and keep him. [Therefore,]
] the worst thing is to introduce something new, for every novelty
] is an act of heresy and each heresy is a deception."

An Al'Q training manual, translated into english.

The al Qaeda manual

This is a picture of Bush using binoculars without removing the caps.

Funny Bush Moment

] "You are a member of the Settlement Group if you are a
] person (or entity) in the United States or its
] Territories and Possessions who purchased prerecorded
] Music Products, consisting of compact discs, cassettes
] and vinyl albums, from one or more retailers during the
] period January 1, 1995, through December 22, 2000."

The music industry might owe you $20, no joke.

"What does the future hold when every garage has got a new car in it?"

As Post-Boom Dust Settles, the South Grimly Downsizes

(3) the social environment in which thoughts originate and evolve, and mindsets develop.

MemeStreams is not Yet Another Web Site.

Beyond 'Couch Potatoes' | First Monday

] "Sneer at hard work and thrift. Encourage the belief that
] all true wealth comes from skillful manipulation and
] cunning, or from sudden, brilliant and lucky strokes that
] leave the plodding, ordinary worker and saver in the
] dust."

How to Ruin American Enterprise. By Ben Stein.

This is very very bad for Linux and Apple. For the icing on the cake, read this post...

Half of Mozilla.org laid off!!!