] Religion - rather than class, ethnic origin or education
] - has become the key determinant of voting in the 2004
] presidential race, according to an exit poll conducted by
] the Associated Press news agency.

Some exit poll statistics here. This election was decided by Conservative Christians who came out to vote because of the marriage amendments. Kerry spent too much time on the Daily Show and not enough time in Church. Stupid old conservatives vote, because they like imposing their will on others. Stupid young liberals tend to stay home and watch TV, because they don't understand the reality of whats going on.

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | Election reveals divided nation

It appears that Bush has won. It appears that the Republicans have control of the House and Senate. This is a complete victory for the Reds.

I offer the following predictions:

On the WOT:

Iraq will slowly become an Islamic fundamentalist state. The U.S. will be largely out of there within a year and on to Pakistan. We'll get Bin Laden, but Islamic Fundamentalism will continue to fester and will rear it's head again in a decade or so. Bush will be seen as having won the WoT in the short term. You'll feel safe. You'll focus on domestic issues in the next election.

Domestic:

The economy will improve considerably as the security concerns wane. The social security nightmare looms. You will see safety valves that allow wealthy people to protect their savings from the coming cataclysm. If you are smart you will save as much as you can over the coming years.

You'll see some barking about a flat tax. I don't think it will actually happen in this session. They are setting the stage for 2008.

You'll get faster internet access, from freed RBOCs. You'll see hydrogen infrastructure appear in the odd place like electric car chargers are today.

The health care situation will continue to deteriorate. I do not take the Republican's proposals on this matter seriously. I'm not saying they won't make a serious proposal. This issue is impacting our international competitiveness. I'm saying they haven't made a serious proposal yet.

I predict that you will see an amendment to the U.S. Constitution passed within a year. I believe that several amendments will be passed within 4 years.

Early:
Gay Marriage
Flag Desecration

Later on:
Abortion Ban
Public (Read as Government) Display of Religious Iconography
Prayer in School

Maybe:
Victim's Rights (Which is a misnomer. Read as "Plaintiff Right's" in MOST contexts. FYI this is the only one on the list that is bi-partisan. I say maybe because it has logical flaws you could fly a plane through, and it doesn't have widespread grassroots support.)

You will see federal legislation passed in the next four years which contains a passage which says that its Constitutionality cannot be challenged in a Court. That law will be declared Unconstitutional by a Court. This will set the stage for what I would call the "big one." Once all of these amendments have been passed the amendment machine will be geared up to make significant changes to the way that government works. That change will entail limiting the power of the Courts as a check upon the Legislature and the Executive. I think thats where the vector points. I'm not going to say anything else about that. I don't think that anyone will propose it for several years. We'll talk about it then.

Democrats:

Its over. The Democrats have to significantly reformulate. I haven't figured out how I think they'll do it. One word I heard on CNN last night about what Blues are likely to feel in the face of this was alienation.

On a personal note, I'm not impressed with the widespread support for the Gay Marriage ban amendments. Are we really saying that America hates fags? Why is this a central goal for religious people? Why do Christians focus on homosexuals, as opposed to, say, feeding the poor, or peace, or other things that Jesus was concerned with? Why do we care about this in particular? What does it say about who we are? What does it communicate about the values that are important to us?

] BALLOT MEASURES / GEORGIA AMENDMENT 1 / EXIT POLL

I'm surprised by the way different age groups voted. The Religious attendance breakdown is amusing. So is the breakdown by income.

Breakdown of GA Gay Marriage Ban

Inspired by Elonka and Rattle, I'll offer my feelings on this evening.

I've had several friends comment that they felt trepidation on the eve of this election... That excitement you once felt as you watched the polls close and the results pour in has been replaced with a sinking feeling in your stomach.

My friends blame 2000. They say they're worried about whether this election will be resolved simply and legitimately.

I think it goes deeper then that. We are a deeply divided nation. Whatever the results of this election, they will be terribly bad for a large number of people who live here. Zogby says that most people won't accept the legitimacy of their opponent's government if their side looses. That worry isn't just about the outcome. Its about what happens afterward.

If Kerry wins the Reds will howl. They'll scream and kick. They'll hate him. More then they hated Clinton. More then the leftists hate Bush. They'll hate him absolutely and they will rail against every decision that he makes. They'll also hate the crazy "do whatever" liberals who put him in office. You'll have about a third of the country acting toward the President with about the level of rational objectivity shown by those who think Bush knew about 9/11 and attacked Afghanistan to build an oil pipeline. A third of the country will act like the "Swift Boat Veterans" all the time.

But they'll have the Congress, and they'll get what they want most of the time, and that may temper them.

If Bush wins cleanly the Blues will be forced to stop pretending that his Presidency is illegitimate. They'll be completely marginalized, loosing control of the Presidency, both houses of Congress, and the Supreme Court. The Democrats with have absolutely no power in the federal government. They will loose much of their middle ground interests and the Reds will be able to successfully pursue some of their more radical interests. Ultimately, the Blues will have to come to terms with the fact that their problem is not with one man nor one election, but with a majority of the American electoral power if not the majority of the American people.

How will they react? Will they attack the electoral college? Will they attack the Senate? The distribution of seats in the House? Will the cities see brain drain as their elite split for warmer pastures in more liberal countries? How will the Blues reformulate their strategy when faced not with a single person to focus their energies on, but with an entire nation?

If Bush wins cleanly the Democrats will find themselves in a very, very deep strategic hole which will probably take years and years to dig out of.

If Bush wins controversially, the Blues will find themselves just as marginalized, and yet still not fully comprehending why, and even more furious about their position, thinking it unfair and illegal. The result will be explosive protest.

None of these scenarios is comforting... The political future of this country promises to continue to be very intense.

You are about to be punched in the stomach. That sinking feeling is your heart wondering which direction the swing is going to come from.

Camera phone image from Santa Clara...

votesaveerrror.jpg

] Some left-leaning Californians say they would rather
] leave the United States -- and go to Canada or elsewhere
] -- than stay with George W. Bush as president.

Thereby absolutely guaranteeing that the GOP will never loose another race... Zogby said on the Daily Show "We are two nations at war... Many people have said they will not recognize the legitimacy of the government if they other side wins."

National Post: Dem will leave if they loose

] After filing more than 40 lawsuits in 18 battleground
] states in recent weeks, and in keeping with their
] Election Day playbook, Democrats are prepared to execute
] an Election Day litigation strategy. As soon as the polls
] open in the morning, their touted 10,000-plus lawyers
] will systematically file litigation to change the rules
] in battleground states across the nation and create a
] sense of chaos.

The GOP says the dems will ruin the election.

G O P.com :: Statement From RNC Communications Director Jim Dyke On Anticipated Kerry-Edwards and Democrat Election Day Litigation Strategy

] The special anonymity requirements of public
] elections make it hard to detect, let alone
] recover from, security failures of an Internet
] voting system, while in e-commerce detection
] and recovery is much easier because e-commerce
] is not anonymous. In a commercial setting,
] people can detect most errors and fraud by
] cross-checking bills, statements, and receipts;
] and when a problem is detected, it is possible to
] recover (at least partially) through refunds,
] insurance, tax deductions, or legal action. In
] contrast, voting systems must not provide receipts,
] because they would violate anonymity and would enable
] vote buying and vote coercion or intimidation.

A security analysis of SERVE. Why doesn't the military have the resources to simply operate voting booths at bases and on ships? You could handle most servicemen/women this way. You would need to prevent these people from also voting absentee, but this could be accomplished by cross-referencing records. The cost associated with this seems small relative to it's importance.

An Analysis of Internet Voting Security in the SERVE (Secure Electronic Registration and Voting Experiment) Online Election System

] So c'mon America, lets make this work. C'mon Congress, get
] serious on this and hold hearings and let's get to the
] bottom of why a report of 4 out of 10 "carries the day".
] If we must, let's look at how we electronically transmit
] trillions of dollars all around the world and use that
] same knowledge and technology to transmit military votes.
] Lets look at how we electronically transmit secure TOP
] SECRET messages all around the world and lets use that
] same knowledge and technology to transmit military votes
] so our troops don't lose their right to vote because the
] mail didn't catch up to them.

A blisteringly angry commentary on the failure of the DOD voting website.

Votes Don't Count?

] U.S. service members based in Iraq and across the globe
] can't be confident that their votes will be counted in
] this year's presidential election, analysts and military
] advocates said this week.

Republicans may have some valid complaints about the situation involving the counting of Military votes, which is apparently still in disarray because they didn't get their acts together after an attempt to collect these votes over the internet failed.

Troops Experience Difficulties in Voting