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"I don't think the report is true, but these crises work for those who want to make fights between people." Kulam Dastagir, 28, a bird seller in Afghanistan

Dow 6,500 ? | The Big Picture
Topic: Miscellaneous 6:34 pm EST, Mar  6, 2009

Well, at least we had great music and great bands in the early nineties. If I can’t have wealth, I damn well better have killer tunes!

Dow 6,500 ? | The Big Picture


S&P500 still overvalued
Topic: Miscellaneous 10:30 pm EST, Mar  5, 2009

S&Ps currently projects 2009 earnings on S&P of $48.10... taking a longer-term average of around 15 times earnings gives a valuation of 721.5, again, just slightly above the current level.

So, based on... long-term earnings considerations, the market is just below a middling valuation.

If the exceptional monetary stimulus since September produces inflation, or the unprecedentedly large budget deficits in fiscal years 2009 and 2010 “crowd out” private investment, then growth and earnings prospects for the next few years would be below average. In that event, the market as it stands today would be overvalued.

This might be wrong. $48.10 factors in a significant drop in earnings.

S&P500 still overvalued


naked capitalism: The Treasury Mortgage Mod Program: Should We Hope It Doesn't Work?
Topic: Miscellaneous 8:43 pm EST, Mar  5, 2009

Why banks don't do principal reductions:

The big one is the difference in treatment of a mod (well, at least the principal reduction kind) versus a foreclosure. For a foreclosure, the losses go against the lowest tranches first, and then proceed to higher tranches. However, with a principal reduction, all tranches, including the AAA (or more accurately, what was once AAA) layer.

naked capitalism: The Treasury Mortgage Mod Program: Should We Hope It Doesn't Work?


Twitpay
Topic: Technology 4:43 pm EST, Mar  5, 2009

Today, we’re taking Twitpay out of beta and putting it out there for everyone to use. (If you don’t like to read long blog posts: we’re turning on “real money” powered by Amazon Payments. We’re excited. Twitpay is awesome.)

Congrats to twitpay for going live with real money!

Twitpay


Daily Show vs CNBC | The Big Picture
Topic: Miscellaneous 8:18 am EST, Mar  5, 2009

Years ago, the expression was “Never pick a fight with people who buy ink by the barrel” (meaning newspapers).  The modern, updated version is “Never pick a fight with people who have ascerbic, award winning comedy writers, a broad TV reach, and a strong internet presence…”

Daily Show vs CNBC | The Big Picture


Twelve Year Lows ? | The Big Picture
Topic: Miscellaneous 3:31 pm EST, Mar  4, 2009

Believe or not, retracing 12-year lows for the Dow is an incredibly rare event. Besides the retest of 1997 lows seen on Monday, this has only happened two other times, on April 8, 1932, and December 6, 1974.

Twelve Year Lows ? | The Big Picture


FT.com / Columnists / John Authers - Short View: Awaiting the bottom
Topic: Miscellaneous 11:33 am EST, Mar  4, 2009

In the US, stocks have shown a strong trend for more than a century, growing by 6.75 per cent per year after inflation, with income reinvested. London’s Lombard Street Research points out there have been only 26 months in the past 140 years when the S&P 500 was further below this trend than it is now. All bar six, three each in 1932 and 1982, were caused by world wars.

FT.com / Columnists / John Authers - Short View: Awaiting the bottom


SPACE.com -- Mothballed Satellite Sits In Warehouse, Waits For New Life
Topic: Miscellaneous 5:17 pm EST, Mar  3, 2009

The long-grounded Deep Space Climate Observatory may be revived for an assignment very different from the controversial mission that was cancelled for its infamous mix of politics and science.

I support this project. We ought to have a camera at that location. The Blue Marble image is one of the most widely distributed pictures in human history and it has had a significant impact on people's perspective about the world. The composite images are not comparable - people want to see the real thing - Really looking down upon our world holds a power that is hard to quantify. Once it exists people will use it everywhere.

The Republicans killed this project for cynical political reasons. By the time it became a political issue $97 million had already been spent - and was thus wasted by failing to launch. Throwing $97 million down the drain is not fiscally responsible!

SPACE.com -- Mothballed Satellite Sits In Warehouse, Waits For New Life


Obama unseals Bush-era wiretap memos
Topic: Local Information 3:04 pm EST, Mar  3, 2009

Already blogged but this link has both memos. The FISA one is substantially less provocative than the one about the bill of rights not applying to military operations on domestic soil.

Obama unseals Bush-era wiretap memos


Bush Lawyers Approved Constitution-Free Domestic Military Ops, Docs Show | Threat Level from Wired.com
Topic: Miscellaneous 11:40 am EST, Mar  3, 2009

"We do not think a military commander carrying out a raid on a terrorist cell would be required to demonstrate probable cause or to obtain a warrant," the Office of Legal Counsel memo (.pdf) said. "We think that the better view is that the Fourth Amendment does not apply to domestic military operations designed to deter and prevent future terrorist attacks."

I think thats fucking ridiculous. I could be persuaded that courts would find such activity to be "reasonable" with regard to the 4th amendment without a showing of probable cause, but there is a difference, and there are limits to what would be acceptable.

Bush Lawyers Approved Constitution-Free Domestic Military Ops, Docs Show | Threat Level from Wired.com


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