] With Spanish national elections set to be held on Sunday
] -- and Aznar confirmed again that the elections will go
] ahead as scheduled -- assigning blame for Thursday's
] terrorist attacks has taken on political undertones that
] some media analysts said could affect the outcome of the
] voting.
]
] If people widely perceive ETA as responsible, this
] common analysis says, then Aznar's ruling Popular Party
] should benefit, perhaps maintaining or even increasing
] its absolute majority in parliament, since the PP is seen
] as tough on Basque separatist demands. Aznar's handpicked
] successor, Mariano Rajoy, has pledged to continue Aznar's
] tough policy of refusing to negotiate with ETA.
]
] However, if Islamic militants are believed involved,
] some analysts have said there could be a popular backlash
] against the Popular Party, for aligning Spain so closely
] with the United States and siding with the Bush
] administration in the Iraq War, which is still deeply
] unpopular here.

One the one hand, by blaming the ETA and not postponing the elections, the government is clearly protecting its own political interests. On the other hand, the left promises to deliver Al'Q exactly what it wants from these attacks.

Political Elements of blame

This article contains some more details... Its messy. The US refutes a claim by Spain that the sort of explosives used are similar to ones the ETA has used in the past, arguing that the ETA hasn't used those explosives in years, and they are widely available. However, they also claim that the organization which claimed responsibility has claimed responsibility in the past for things they were clearly not involved with, such as the power outage in the north east last summer. This raises doubts about their threat on the US. I've also read that the van is a little suspicious because the tape found in it is an educational tape, something under the head of a devout muslim. It could be an attempt at indirection. Also, Al Q usually doesn't declare responsibility for attacks so soon after they have occurred.

The fact that this UK group is nutzo and declares responsibility for all kinds of things does not mean Al Q is not responsible. Stratfor mentions another Al Q claim on the jihadunspun website, which since appears to have had its virtual host removed. (Good riddance to bad rubbage!)

If it does turn out this was the ETA it is a very dramatic change in their tactics, and really opens a new era of terrorism tactics.

Bombing Clues Point To Islamist Terrorists (washingtonpost.com)

] "I'm the commander - see, I don't need to explain - I
] don't need to explain why I say things. That's the
] interesting thing about being the President. Maybe
] somebody needs to explain to me why they say something,
] but I don't feel like I owe anybody an explanation."
]
] - George W. Bush, Washington Post, 11-19-02

Some of these quotes provide incite into the speaker. Some are not suprising. Some, when put back in context, don't mean what you are lead to think they mean. A few are less questionable then the others. They are all entertaining.

t r u t h o u t - William Rivers Pitt | Fish. Barrel. Boom.

] "We bring the good news to Muslims of the world that the
] expected 'Winds of Black Death' strike against America is
] now in its final stage ... 90 percent (ready) and God
] willing near," the letter said.
]
] The letter, signed by the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades that
] said it was part of al-Qaida, was sent to the
] London-based al-Quds al-Arabi newspaper. A copy of the
] letter was faxed to Reuters in Dubai.

BTW, the same guys that just claimed responsiblity for bombing Spain issued a threat to the U.S. today. (Both claims are starting to look questionable. This group also claimed responsibility for the power outage in the North East last summer.)

Purported al-Qaida letter says strike on U.S. near

] The Arabic newspaper Al-Quds al-Arabi said Thursday it
] had received a claim of responsibility for the Madrid
] train bombings issued in the name of al Qaeda.
]
] The five-page e-mail claim, signed by the shadowy Brigade
] of Abu Hafs al-Masri, was received at the paper's London
] offices. It said the brigade's "death squad" had
] penetrated "one of the pillars of the crusade alliance,
] Spain."
]
] "This is part of settling old accounts with Spain, the
] crusader, and America's ally in its war against Islam,"
] the claim said.

Al Q claims responsiblity (meanwhile the UN is busy condeming ETA for the bombings)

] Spain's interior minister said a suspect van had been
] found on Thursday near Madrid, scene of bombings that
] killed 190 people, containing seven detonators and a tape
] in Arabic language.
]
] Interior Minister Angel Acebes said the tape had
] recordings of verses from the Koran.

It will be difficult for the conspiracy theorists to claim that Spain "allowed this to happen" as the government fingered the wrong suspects in the outset. (U2: Or maybe not, but read below.) This is the first successful Al Q' move in Europe. It may create some renewal of Al Q' as they've been failing operationally on a frequent basis in the past months, but that is not the goal here.

What Al'Q wants is for Spaniards to be angry at their government for supporting the war in Iraq, and to beleive that their government exposed them to terrorism by supporting the United States. Their goal is to reduce the support that various governments in Europe have for the United States by making people afraid that supporting the U.S., even if they agree with the U.S., will expose them to these risks.

It could end up backfiring on them if it drives home the overall concept that Europeans are at risk from Al'Q regardless of whether or not they support the United States, and thereby galvanizes support for more extensive anti-terror efforts rather then diminishing support.

It will be interesting to see how Europe reacts. I hope they do not succumb to fear.

U: The fact that Spain got the UN to blame ETA at this stage is a little perplexing. Looking at the information it seems clear to me that this not ETA. At the very least the UN ought to be more cautious here lest they look like fools. If you're looking for a conspiracy theory, here is one: Spain is focusing on the ETA in order to confuse the emotional message sent by the terror attacks in the early days as the shock sets in. If they went to the public and said "Al Q attacked us and they did it for XYZ reason" they would be underlining the attacks with the explanation. By muddying the issue as much as possible Al Q is less likely to get their point across.

U2: I've revisited this theory a bit. The fact is that the Spanish government doesn't like ETA and wants to go after ETA. By misdirecting energy at ETA they build support for more extreme crackdowns on ETA. That is almost certainly their motive in this. In effect they are replacing Al Q's message with one they find more suitable to their interests. As for the inevitable claim that they allowed this to occur so that they could target ETA, the fact is that the international community will cease to be confused about this matter on short order, and allowing Al Q this victory is far more damaging to them vis-a-vis their already unpopular support for the war in Iraq to be worth the slight advantage this offers them against the already marginalized and weak ETA organization. So no, there is no way that the government of Spain was complicit in this. Its simply not in their best interest.

It wasn't ETA, it was AL'Q

] French and German intelligence officers who spoke to
] United Press International on condition their names not
] be revealed say, "the Madrid attacks are far too
] sophisticated to be the work of ETA. There was too much
] logistics involved for this to be the work of ETA."

United Press International: Madrid bombings carry al-Qaida hallmark

] Euskadi Ta Azkatasuna, translated from Euskara, the
] Basque language, means "freedom for the Basque country."

A Primer on the ETA (washingtonpost.com)

From CNN: A series of co-ordinated bomb attacks on Madrid's commuter train system killed at least 186 people and wounded over 1,000 at the height of the city's rush hour. Spanish officials are blaming terrorists from the Basque separatist group ETA for the attack, but so far, there has been no claim of responsibility.

This image comes from a spanish website called El Pais. People seem to be posting it around as a sign of solidarity with the victims.

Major terrorist attack in Spain

Hijexx wrote:
] BBC:
]
] "A former Pakistani diplomat has told the BBC that the US
] was planning military action against Osama Bin Laden and the
] Taleban even before last week's attacks.
]
] Niaz Naik, a former Pakistani Foreign Secretary, was told by
] senior American officials in mid-July that military action
] against Afghanistan would go ahead by the middle of
] October."
]
] http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/south_asia/1550366.stm
]

OK, *THAT* is interesting. I'm popping this back out to my MemeStream. I'm not terribly suprised that they were planning to attack Afghanistan. Obviously it should have been done sooner. However, it does put the situation in a slightly different light.

However, there IS a response from the US in the Guardian story:

Mr Simons denied having said anything about detailed operations. "I've known Niaz Naik and considered him a friend for years. He's an honourable diplomat. I didn't say anything like that and didn't hear anyone else say anything like that. We were clear that feeling in Washington was strong, and that military action was one of the options down the road. But details, I don't know where they came from."

It IS understood, as presented in the Guardian story, that the US was trying to get BL out of Afghanistan, and the use of force was on the table, but the idea that they had a specific October timetable is rather amazing.

RE: Furor over Bush's 9/11 ad