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| Current Topic: Telecom Industry |
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The Many Paradoxes of Broadband | Andrew Odlyzko [PDF] |
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| Topic: Telecom Industry |
7:45 am EDT, Sep 3, 2003 |
There is much dismay and even despair over the slow pace at which broadband is advancing in the United States. This slow pace is often claimed to be fatally retarding the recovery of the entire IT industry. As a result there are increasing calls for government action, through regulation or even through outright subsidies. A careful examination shows that broadband is full of puzzles and paradoxes, which suggests caution before taking any drastic action. As one simple example, the basic meaning of broadband is almost universally misunderstood, since by the official definition, we all have broadband courtesy of the postal system. Also, broadband penetration, while generally regarded as disappointingly slow, is actually extremely fast by most standards, faster than cell phone diffusion at a comparable stage. Furthermore, many of the policies proposed for advancing broadband are likely to have perverse effects. There are many opportunities for narrowband services that are not being exploited, some of which might speed up broadband adoption. There are interesting dynamics to the financial and technological scenes that suggest broadband access may arrive sooner than generally expected. It may also arrive through unexpected channels. On the other hand, fiber-to-the-home, widely regarded as the Holy Grail of residential broadband, might never become widespread. In any case, there is likely to be considerable turmoil in the telecom industry over the next few years. Robust growth in demand is likely to be combined with a restructuring of the industry. This paper also appears in the September 2003 issue of First Monday. You'll want to print it to read it, so I've linked directly to the PDF version. The Many Paradoxes of Broadband | Andrew Odlyzko [PDF] |
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The COOK Report On Internet |
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| Topic: Telecom Industry |
11:18 pm EDT, Sep 3, 2002 |
This issue of the COOK Report explores peering, transit and exchanges for the first time since about 1999. While a lot has changed, a lot remains the same. Estimates of the capacity utilization of the Tier 1 backbones show them to be lightly utilized ... Over the past five weeks we have had conversations ... [which] suggest that the [Tier 1] oligopoly is engaging in behavior that could blow up in a manner similar to the capacity swaps that blew up earlier this year. ISPs are beginning to use tools to do load balancing of their upstream connections in real time. The Tier Ones, by peering in their tight oligopoly, may have rendered themselves irrelevant. Andrew Odlyzko: "I find the prospects of smaller networks being able to bypass the Tier Ones fascinating. The development of tools [that do this] is also very interesting." The COOK Report On Internet |
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Deals Within Telecom Deals |
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| Topic: Telecom Industry |
2:07 pm EDT, Aug 25, 2002 |
An article about the sneaky financial dealings of the telecom industry. Time Warner Telecom, Sonus, Qwest, Williams, Winstar, Global Crossing, Corvis, Tellium, Lucent, Sycamore, WorldCom, Alteon, Nortel, and others. ... The fact that companies and their executives profited from investments in fledgling suppliers may help explain why there was such a gross misallocation of capital in the sector, and why networks that cost billions to build fetch far less in bankruptcy auctions. This article implies a problem that is much more broad then likely existed. There were a lot of these sort of relationships in the industry, and not just between big telecoms and small equipment companies, but also between small telecoms and big equipment companies. There are many reasons for getting involved in a deal like this. Telecoms want cheaper gear and good support for it. Equipment dealers want environments that push the technical limits of their gear and/or need large customers who validate their offerings in the marketplace. Throwing stock into the deal is little different then lowering a price. If the equipment didn't work, or wasn't used, or wasn't really bought, then thats obviously a problem, but the overall value of telecom networks in the current environment has to do with sellers pressured by debt and an overcapacity in infrastructure rather then an inflation of the value of *new hardware.* Extent of network capacity in most cases was based on demand estimates made by investment firms. Most people were not building capacity just to buy equipment. Its not impossible that this occured, but most of the industry is not guilty of this. Deals Within Telecom Deals |
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washingtonpost.com: Shake-Up Sought At WorldCom |
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| Topic: Telecom Industry |
4:19 pm EDT, Aug 17, 2002 |
Two WorldCom board members are urging other directors and creditors to fire chief executive John Sidgmore, saying his vision for bringing the telecommunications company out of bankruptcy is flawed and the company should instead be shopping itself to potential buyers. Sources said the board members have met with creditors in recent weeks, seeking their support to replace Sidgmore. One source said a group of creditors and some directors had already interviewed a potential replacement for the chief executive. washingtonpost.com: Shake-Up Sought At WorldCom |
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Regional Bell Giants No Longer Invulnerable |
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| Topic: Telecom Industry |
12:20 pm EDT, Jul 24, 2002 |
Shortly after BellSouth, the nation's No. 3 local phone company, sent its stock plunging yesterday by saying it would fail to meet its financial targets for 2002, one analyst released a report titled, "It's Official -- There Is No Place to Hide." In some ways, the pronouncement was as startling as it was apt. While the carriers fought each other and CLECs withered, RBOCs could sit back with their near-monopolies and reap growth, profits and the adulation of investors. Or so the story went. The Bells' problems keep mounting. Asked about growth prospects, a Verizon rep said, "We see long-term growth on the wireless side, and also a great opportunity to offer wireless services to our enterprise customers." He made no mention of plain old telephone service. Nothing about POTS, but also nothing about profits. Growth is not cheap in these markets, and the new customers remaining to be won are not particularly valuable. BellSouth shares lost 18% yesterday on news that net income was down 67% for the quarter. That's a four year low. If you thought the RBOCs' cash flow immunized them against the telecom collapse, think again. Regional Bell Giants No Longer Invulnerable |
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Bankruptcy at WorldCom Is the Largest in U.S. History |
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| Topic: Telecom Industry |
9:43 am EDT, Jul 22, 2002 |
WorldCom, plagued by the rapid erosion of its profits and an accounting scandal that created billions in illusory earnings, last night submitted the largest bankruptcy filing in United States history. Shareholders, who owned what was once one of the world's most valuable companies, worth more than $100 billion at its peak, are expected to be virtually wiped out. Largest. Bankruptcy. Ever. (At least for the next few months.) Bankruptcy at WorldCom Is the Largest in U.S. History |
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Economist on the future of the Telecom Industry |
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| Topic: Telecom Industry |
3:49 am EDT, Jul 21, 2002 |
"Expect the telecoms revival to come riding on the back of an unexpected technology that nobody in the industry has yet heard of. " Just read the last few paragraphs. Economist on the future of the Telecom Industry |
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